data drivers;
format date monyy.;
input date:monyy5. injuries @@;
beltlaw = (date ge '01jan83'd);
datalines;
jan80 1665 feb80 1361 mar80 1506 apr80 1360
may80 1453 jun80 1522 jul80 1460 aug80 1552
sep80 1548 oct80 1827 nov80 1737 dec80 1941
jan81 1474 feb81 1458 mar81 1542 apr81 1404
may81 1522 jun81 1385 jul81 1641 aug81 1510
sep81 1681 oct81 1938 nov81 1868 dec81 1726
jan82 1456 feb82 1445 mar82 1456 apr82 1365
may82 1487 jun82 1558 jul82 1488 aug82 1684
sep82 1594 oct82 1850 nov82 1998 dec82 2079
jan83 1494 feb83 1057 mar83 1218 apr83 1168
may83 1236 jun83 1076 jul83 1174 aug83 1139
sep83 1427 oct83 1487 nov83 1483 dec83 1513
jan84 1357 feb84 1165 mar84 1282 apr84 1110
may84 1297 jun84 1185 jul84 1222 aug84 1284
sep84 1444 oct84 1575 nov84 1737 dec84 1763
jan85 . feb85 . mar85 . apr85 .
may85 . jun85 . jul85 . aug85 .
sep85 . oct85 . nov85 . dec85 .
;
run;
proc gplot data=drivers;
plot injuries*date=1;
symbol1 v=star c=blue;
title "Time Series Plot";
run;
quit;
title;
proc arima data=drivers;
i var=injuries crosscorr=beltlaw noprint;
e input=beltlaw p=(1)(2 12);
f lead=12 out=fore2 id=date interval=month;
run;
quit;
goptions cback=white ctitle=bl ctext=bl ftitle=centx
ftext=centx reset=(axis symbol);
proc gplot data=fore2;
format date year4.;
plot injuries*date=1
forecast*date=2
l95*date =3
u95*date =3 / overlay
haxis=axis1
vaxis=axis2
vminor=4
href='01jan83'd
lh=2;
title 'Driver Casualties Data';
title2 'Monthly Totals';
axis1 offset=(1 cm) label=('Year')
order=('01jan80'd to '01jan86'd by year);
axis2 label=(angle=90 'Casualties')
order=(750 to 2250 by 500);
symbol1 i=join l=1 c=red;
symbol2 h=2 pct v=star c=blue;
symbol3 l=20 i=join c=green;
footnote1 c=r f=centx ' --- Actual'
c=b f=centx ' * Forecast'
c=g f=centx ' --- U95/L95';
run;
quit;
title;
footnote;
ods graphics on;
proc arima data=drivers plots(only)=(forecast(forecast));
i var=injuries crosscorr=beltlaw;
e input=beltlaw p=(1)(2 12);
f lead=12 out=fore2 id=date interval=month;
run;
quit;