The PHREG Procedure

Krall, Uthoff, and Harley (1975) analyzed data from a study on multiple myeloma in which researchers treated 65 patients with alkylating agents. Of those patients, 48 died during the study and 17 survived. The following DATA step creates the data set Myeloma. The variable Time represents the survival time in months from diagnosis. The variable VStatus consists of two values, 0 and 1, indicating whether the patient was alive or dead, respectively, at the end of the study. If the value of VStatus is 0, the corresponding value of Time is censored. The variables thought to be related to survival are LogBUN (log(BUN) at diagnosis), HGB (hemoglobin at diagnosis), Platelet (platelets at diagnosis: 0=abnormal, 1=normal), Age (age at diagnosis, in years), LogWBC (log(WBC) at diagnosis), Frac (fractures at diagnosis: 0=none, 1=present), LogPBM (log percentage of plasma cells in bone marrow), Protein (proteinuria at diagnosis), and SCalc (serum calcium at diagnosis). Interest lies in identifying important prognostic factors from these nine explanatory variables.

data Myeloma;
   input Time VStatus LogBUN HGB Platelet Age LogWBC Frac
         LogPBM Protein SCalc;
   label Time='Survival Time'
         VStatus='0=Alive 1=Dead';
   datalines;
 1.25  1  2.2175   9.4  1  67  3.6628  1  1.9542  12  10
 1.25  1  1.9395  12.0  1  38  3.9868  1  1.9542  20  18
 2.00  1  1.5185   9.8  1  81  3.8751  1  2.0000   2  15
 2.00  1  1.7482  11.3  0  75  3.8062  1  1.2553   0  12
 2.00  1  1.3010   5.1  0  57  3.7243  1  2.0000   3   9
 3.00  1  1.5441   6.7  1  46  4.4757  0  1.9345  12  10
 5.00  1  2.2355  10.1  1  50  4.9542  1  1.6628   4   9
 5.00  1  1.6812   6.5  1  74  3.7324  0  1.7324   5   9
 6.00  1  1.3617   9.0  1  77  3.5441  0  1.4624   1   8
 6.00  1  2.1139  10.2  0  70  3.5441  1  1.3617   1   8
 6.00  1  1.1139   9.7  1  60  3.5185  1  1.3979   0  10
 6.00  1  1.4150  10.4  1  67  3.9294  1  1.6902   0   8
 7.00  1  1.9777   9.5  1  48  3.3617  1  1.5682   5  10
 7.00  1  1.0414   5.1  0  61  3.7324  1  2.0000   1  10
 7.00  1  1.1761  11.4  1  53  3.7243  1  1.5185   1  13
 9.00  1  1.7243   8.2  1  55  3.7993  1  1.7404   0  12
11.00  1  1.1139  14.0  1  61  3.8808  1  1.2788   0  10
11.00  1  1.2304  12.0  1  43  3.7709  1  1.1761   1   9
11.00  1  1.3010  13.2  1  65  3.7993  1  1.8195   1  10
11.00  1  1.5682   7.5  1  70  3.8865  0  1.6721   0  12
11.00  1  1.0792   9.6  1  51  3.5051  1  1.9031   0   9
13.00  1  0.7782   5.5  0  60  3.5798  1  1.3979   2  10
14.00  1  1.3979  14.6  1  66  3.7243  1  1.2553   2  10
15.00  1  1.6021  10.6  1  70  3.6902  1  1.4314   0  11
16.00  1  1.3424   9.0  1  48  3.9345  1  2.0000   0  10
16.00  1  1.3222   8.8  1  62  3.6990  1  0.6990  17  10
17.00  1  1.2304  10.0  1  53  3.8808  1  1.4472   4   9
17.00  1  1.5911  11.2  1  68  3.4314  0  1.6128   1  10
18.00  1  1.4472   7.5  1  65  3.5682  0  0.9031   7   8
19.00  1  1.0792  14.4  1  51  3.9191  1  2.0000   6  15
19.00  1  1.2553   7.5  0  60  3.7924  1  1.9294   5   9
24.00  1  1.3010  14.6  1  56  4.0899  1  0.4771   0   9
25.00  1  1.0000  12.4  1  67  3.8195  1  1.6435   0  10
26.00  1  1.2304  11.2  1  49  3.6021  1  2.0000  27  11
32.00  1  1.3222  10.6  1  46  3.6990  1  1.6335   1   9
35.00  1  1.1139   7.0  0  48  3.6532  1  1.1761   4  10
37.00  1  1.6021  11.0  1  63  3.9542  0  1.2041   7   9
41.00  1  1.0000  10.2  1  69  3.4771  1  1.4771   6  10
41.00  1  1.1461   5.0  1  70  3.5185  1  1.3424   0   9
51.00  1  1.5682   7.7  0  74  3.4150  1  1.0414   4  13
52.00  1  1.0000  10.1  1  60  3.8573  1  1.6532   4  10
54.00  1  1.2553   9.0  1  49  3.7243  1  1.6990   2  10
58.00  1  1.2041  12.1  1  42  3.6990  1  1.5798  22  10
66.00  1  1.4472   6.6  1  59  3.7853  1  1.8195   0   9
67.00  1  1.3222  12.8  1  52  3.6435  1  1.0414   1  10
88.00  1  1.1761  10.6  1  47  3.5563  0  1.7559  21   9
89.00  1  1.3222  14.0  1  63  3.6532  1  1.6232   1   9
92.00  1  1.4314  11.0  1  58  4.0755  1  1.4150   4  11
 4.00  0  1.9542  10.2  1  59  4.0453  0  0.7782  12  10
 4.00  0  1.9243  10.0  1  49  3.9590  0  1.6232   0  13
 7.00  0  1.1139  12.4  1  48  3.7993  1  1.8573   0  10
 7.00  0  1.5315  10.2  1  81  3.5911  0  1.8808   0  11
 8.00  0  1.0792   9.9  1  57  3.8325  1  1.6532   0   8
12.00  0  1.1461  11.6  1  46  3.6435  0  1.1461   0   7
11.00  0  1.6128  14.0  1  60  3.7324  1  1.8451   3   9
12.00  0  1.3979   8.8  1  66  3.8388  1  1.3617   0   9
13.00  0  1.6628   4.9  0  71  3.6435  0  1.7924   0   9
16.00  0  1.1461  13.0  1  55  3.8573  0  0.9031   0   9
19.00  0  1.3222  13.0  1  59  3.7709  1  2.0000   1  10
19.00  0  1.3222  10.8  1  69  3.8808  1  1.5185   0  10
28.00  0  1.2304   7.3  1  82  3.7482  1  1.6721   0   9
41.00  0  1.7559  12.8  1  72  3.7243  1  1.4472   1   9
53.00  0  1.1139  12.0  1  66  3.6128  1  2.0000   1  11
57.00  0  1.2553  12.5  1  66  3.9685  0  1.9542   0  11
77.00  0  1.0792  14.0  1  60  3.6812  0  0.9542   0  12
;

The stepwise selection process consists of a series of alternating forward selection and backward elimination steps. The former adds variables to the model, while the latter removes variables from the model.

The following statements use PROC PHREG to produce a stepwise regression analysis. Stepwise selection is requested by specifying the SELECTION=STEPWISE option in the MODEL statement. The option SLENTRY=0.25 specifies that a variable has to be significant at the 0.25 level before it can be entered into the model, while the option SLSTAY=0.15 specifies that a variable in the model has to be significant at the 0.15 level for it to remain in the model. The DETAILS option requests detailed results for the variable selection process.

proc phreg data=Myeloma;
   model Time*VStatus(0)=LogBUN HGB Platelet Age LogWBC
                         Frac LogPBM Protein SCalc
                         / selection=stepwise slentry=0.25
                           slstay=0.15 details;
run;

Results of the stepwise regression analysis are displayed in Output 85.1.1 through Output 85.1.7.

Individual score tests are used to determine which of the nine explanatory variables is first selected into the model. In this case, the score test for each variable is the global score test for the model containing that variable as the only explanatory variable. Output 85.1.1 displays the chi-square statistics and the corresponding p-values. The variable LogBUN has the largest chi-square value (8.5164), and it is significant (p = 0.0035) at the SLENTRY=0.25 level. The variable LogBUN is thus entered into the model.

Output 85.1.2 displays the results of the first model. Since the Wald chi-square statistic is significant (p = 0.0039) at the SLSTAY=0.15 level, LogBUN stays in the model.

The next step consists of selecting another variable to add to the model. Output 85.1.3 displays the chi-square statistics and p-values of individual score tests (adjusted for LogBUN) for the remaining eight variables. The score chi-square for a given variable is the value of the likelihood score test for testing the significance of the variable in the presence of LogBUN. The variable HGB is selected because it has the highest chi-square value (4.3468), and it is significant (p = 0.0371) at the SLENTRY=0.25 level.

Output 85.1.4 displays the fitted model containing both LogBUN and HGB. Based on the Wald statistics, neither LogBUN nor HGB is removed from the model.

Output 85.1.5 shows Step 3 of the selection process, in which the variable SCalc is added, resulting in the model with LogBUN, HGB, and SCalc as the explanatory variables. Note that SCalc has the smallest Wald chi-square statistic, and it is not significant (p = 0.1782) at the SLSTAY=0.15 level.

The variable SCalc is then removed from the model in a step-down phase in Step 4 (Output 85.1.6). The removal of SCalc brings the stepwise selection process to a stop in order to avoid repeatedly entering and removing the same variable.

The procedure also displays a summary table of the steps in the stepwise selection process, as shown in Output 85.1.7.

The stepwise selection process results in a model with two explanatory variables, LogBUN and HGB.