The RELIABILITY Procedure 
Probability Plotting 
Probability plots are useful tools for the display and analysis of lifetime data. See Abernethy (2006) for examples that use probability plots in the analysis of reliability data. Probability plots use a special scale so that a cumulative distribution function (CDF) plots as a straight line. Thus, if lifetime data are a sample from a distribution, the CDF estimated from the data plots approximately as a straight line on a probability plot for the distribution.
You can use the RELIABILITY procedure to construct probability plots for data that are complete, right censored, or interval censored (in readout form) for each of the probability distributions in Table 12.49.
A random variable belongs to a locationscale family of distributions if its CDF is of the form
where is the location parameter, and is the scale parameter. Here, is a CDF that cannot depend on any unknown parameters, and is the CDF of if and . For example, if is a normal random variable with mean and standard deviation ,
and
Of the distributions in Table 12.49, the normal, extreme value, and logistic distributions are locationscale models. As shown in Table 12.50, if has a lognormal, Weibull, or loglogistic distribution, then has a distribution that is a locationscale model. Probability plots are constructed for lognormal, Weibull, and loglogistic distributions by using instead of in the plots.
Let be ordered observations of a random sample with distribution function . A probability plot is a plot of the points against , where is an estimate of the CDF . The points are called plotting positions. The axis on which the points s are plotted is usually labeled with a probability scale (the scale of ).
If is one of the locationscale distributions, then is the lifetime; otherwise, the log of the lifetime is used to transform the distribution to a locationscale model.
If the data actually have the stated distribution, then ,
and points should fall approximately on a straight line.
There are several ways to compute plotting positions from failure data. These are discussed in the next two sections.
The censoring times must be taken into account when you compute plotting positions for rightcensored data. The RELIABILITY procedure provides several methods for computing plotting positions. These are specified with the PPOS= option in the ANALYZE, PROBPLOT, and RELATIONPLOT statements. All of the methods give similar results, as illustrated in the section Expected Ranks, KaplanMeier, and Modified KaplanMeier Methods, the section NelsonAalen, and the section Median Ranks.
Let be ordered observations of a random sample including failure times and censor times. Order the data in increasing order. Label all the data with reverse ranks , with . For the failure corresponding to reverse rank , compute the reliability, or survivor function estimate
with . The expected rank plotting position is computed as . The option PPOS=EXPRANK specifies the expected rank plotting position.
For the KaplanMeier method,
The KaplanMeier plotting position is then computed as . The option PPOS=KM specifies the KaplanMeier plotting position.
For the modified KaplanMeier method, use
where is computed from the KaplanMeier formula with . The plotting position is then computed as . The option PPOS=MKM specifies the modified KaplanMeier plotting position. If the PPOS option is not specified, the modified KaplanMeier plotting position is used as the default method.
For complete samples, for the expected rank method, for the KaplanMeier method, and for the modified KaplanMeier method. If the largest observation is a failure for the KaplanMeier estimator, then and the point is not plotted. These three methods are shown for the field winding data in Table 12.52 and Table 12.53.
Ordered 
Reverse 





Observation 
Rank 

31.7 
16 
16/17 
1.0000 
0.9411 
0.0588 
39.2 
15 
15/16 
0.9411 
0.8824 
0.1176 
57.5 
14 
14/15 
0.8824 
0.8235 
0.1765 
65.0+ 
13 

65.8 
12 
12/13 
0.8235 
0.7602 
0.2398 
70.0 
11 
11/12 
0.7602 
0.6968 
0.3032 
75.0+ 
10 

75.0+ 
9 

87.5+ 
8 

88.3+ 
7 

94.2+ 
6 

101.7+ 
5 

105.8 
4 
4/5 
0.6968 
0.5575 
0.4425 
109.2+ 
3 

110.0 
2 
2/3 
0.5575 
0.3716 
0.6284 
130.0+ 
1 

+ Censored Times 
Ordered 
Reverse 






Observation 
Rank 

31.7 
16 
15/16 
1.0000 
0.9375 
0.0625 
0.0313 
39.2 
15 
14/15 
0.9375 
0.8750 
0.1250 
0.0938 
57.5 
14 
13/14 
0.8750 
0.8125 
0.1875 
0.1563 
65.0+ 
13 

65.8 
12 
11/12 
0.8125 
0.7448 
0.2552 
0.2214 
70.0 
11 
10/11 
0.7448 
0.6771 
0.3229 
0.2891 
75.0+ 
10 

75.0+ 
9 

87.5+ 
8 

88.3+ 
7 

94.2+ 
6 

101.7+ 
5 

105.8 
4 
3/4 
0.6771 
0.5078 
0.4922 
0.4076 
109.2+ 
3 

110.0 
2 
1/2 
0.5078 
0.2539 
0.7461 
0.6192 
130.0+ 
1 

+ Censored Times 
Estimate the cumulative hazard function by
with . The reliability is , and the plotting position, or CDF, is . You can show that for all ages. The NelsonAalen method is shown for the field winding data in Table 12.54.
Ordered 
Reverse 





Observation 
Rank 

31.7 
16 
1/16 
0.0000 
0.0625 
0.0606 
39.2 
15 
1/15 
0.0625 
0.1292 
0.1212 
57.5 
14 
1/14 
0.1292 
0.2006 
0.1818 
65.0+ 
13 

65.8 
12 
1/12 
0.2006 
0.2839 
0.2472 
70.0 
11 
1/11 
0.2839 
0.3748 
0.3126 
75.0+ 
10 

75.0+ 
9 

87.5+ 
8 

88.3+ 
7 

94.2+ 
6 

101.7+ 
5 

105.8 
4 
1/4 
0.3748 
0.6248 
0.4647 
109.2+ 
3 

110.0 
2 
1/2 
0.6248 
1.1248 
0.6753 
130.0+ 
1 

+ Censored Times 
See Abernethy (2006) for a discussion of the methods described in this section. Let be ordered observations of a random sample including failure times and censor times. A failure order number is assigned to the ith failure: , where . The increment is initially 1 and is modified when a censoring time is encountered in the ordered sample. The new increment is computed as
The plotting position is computed for the th failure time as
For complete samples, the failure order number is equal to , the order of the failure in the sample. In this case, the preceding equation for is an approximation to the median plotting position computed as the median of the thorder statistic from the uniform distribution on (0, 1). In the censored case, is not necessarily an integer, but the preceding equation still provides an approximation to the median plotting position. The PPOS=MEDRANK option specifies the median rank plotting position.
For complete data, an alternative method of computing the median rank plotting position for failure is to compute the exact median of the distribution of the th order statistic of a sample of size from the uniform distribution on (0,1). If the data are right censored, the adjusted rank , as defined in the preceding paragraph, is used in place of in the computation of the median rank. The PPOS=MEDRANK1 option specifies this type of plotting position.
Nelson (1982, p. 148) provides the following example of multiply rightcensored failure data for field windings in electrical generators. Table 12.55 shows the data, the intermediate calculations, and the plotting positions calculated by exact () and approximate () median ranks.
Ordered 
Increment 
Failure Order 


Observation 

Number 


31.7 
1.0000 
1.0000 
0.04268 
0.04240 
39.2 
1.0000 
2.0000 
0.1037 
0.1027 
57.5 
1.0000 
3.0000 
0.1646 
0.1637 
65.0+ 
1.0769 

65.8 
1.0769 
4.0769 
0.2303 
0.2294 
70.0 
1.0769 
5.1538 
0.2960 
0.2953 
75.0+ 
1.1846 

75.0+ 
1.3162 

87.5+ 
1.4808 

88.3+ 
1.6923 

94.2+ 
1.9744 

101.7+ 
2.3692 

105.8 
2.3692 
7.5231 
0.4404 
0.4402 
109.2+ 
3.1590 

110.0 
3.1590 
10.6821 
0.6331 
0.6335 
130.0+ 
6.3179 

+ Censored Times 
The RELIABILITY procedure can create probability plots for intervalcensored data when all units share common interval endpoints. This type of data is called readout data in the RELIABILITY procedure. Estimates of the cumulative distribution function are computed at times corresponding to the interval endpoints. Right censoring can also be accommodated if the censor times correspond to interval endpoints. See the section Weibull Analysis of Interval Data with Common Inspection Schedule for an example of a Weibull plot and analysis for interval data.
Table 12.56 illustrates the computational scheme used to compute the CDF estimates. The data are failure data for microprocessors (Nelson; 1990, p. 147). In Table 12.56, are the interval upper endpoints, in hours, is the number of units failing in interval , and is the number of unfailed units at the beginning of interval .
Note that there is right censoring as well as interval censoring in these data. For example, two units fail in the interval (24, 48) hours, and there are 1414 unfailed units at the beginning of the interval, 24 hours. At the beginning of the next interval, (48, 168) hours, there are 573 unfailed units. The number of unfailed units that are removed from the test at 48 hours is units. These are rightcensored units.
The reliability at the end of interval is computed recursively as
with . The plotting position is .
Interval 
Interval 






Endpoint 



1 
6 
6/1423 
0.99578 
0.99578 
.00421 
2 
12 
2/1417 
0.99859 
0.99438 
.00562 
3 
24 
0/1415 
1.00000 
0.99438 
.00562 
4 
48 
2/1414 
0.99859 
0.99297 
.00703 
5 
168 
1/573 
0.99825 
0.99124 
.00876 
6 
500 
1/422 
0.99763 
0.98889 
.01111 
7 
1000 
2/272 
0.99265 
0.98162 
.01838 
8 
2000 
1/123 
0.99187 
0.97364 
.02636 
The RELIABILITY procedure can create probability plots for data that consists of combinations of exact, leftcensored, rightcensored, and intervalcensored lifetimes. Unlike the method in the previous section, failure intervals need not share common endpoints, although if the intervals share common endpoints, the two methods give the same results. The RELIABILITY procedure uses an iterative algorithm developed by Turnbull (1976) to compute a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate of the cumulative distribution function for the data. Since the technique is maximum likelihood, standard errors of the cumulative probability estimates are computed from the inverse of the associated Fisher information matrix. A technique developed by Gentleman and Geyer (1994) is used to check for convergence to the maximum likelihood estimate. Also see Meeker and Escobar (1998, chap. 3) for more information.
Although this method applies to more general situations, where the intervals may be overlapping, the example of the previous section will be used to illustrate the method. Table 12.57 contains the microprocessor data of the previous section, arranged in intervals. A missing (.) lower endpoint indicates left censoring, and a missing upper endpoint indicates right censoring. These can be thought of as semiinfinite intervals with lower (upper) endpoint of negative (positive) infinity for left (right) censoring.
Lower 
Upper 
Number 

Endpoint 
Endpoint 
Failed 
. 
6 
6 
6 
12 
2 
24 
48 
2 
24 
. 
1 
48 
168 
1 
48 
. 
839 
168 
500 
1 
168 
. 
150 
500 
1000 
2 
500 
. 
149 
1000 
2000 
1 
1000 
. 
147 
2000 
. 
122 
The following SAS statements compute the Turnbull estimate and create a lognormal probability plot:
data micro; input t1 t2 f ; datalines; . 6 6 6 12 2 12 24 0 24 48 2 24 . 1 48 168 1 48 . 839 168 500 1 168 . 150 500 1000 2 500 . 149 1000 2000 1 1000 . 147 2000 . 122 ; run;
proc reliability data=micro; distribution lognormal; freq f; pplot ( t1 t2 ) / itprintem printprobs maxitem = ( 1000, 25 ) nofit npintervals = simul ppout; run;
The nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate of the CDF can only increase on certain intervals, and must remain constant between the intervals. The Turnbull algorithm first computes the intervals on which the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate of the CDF can increase. The algorithm then iteratively estimates the probability associated with each interval. The ITPRINTEM option along with the PRINTPROBS option instructs the procedure to print the intervals on which probability increases can occur and the iterative history of the estimates of the interval probabilities. The PPOUT option requests tabular output of the estimated CDF, standard errors, and confidence limits for each cumulative probability.
Figure 12.43 shows every 25th iteration and the last iteration for the Turnbull estimate of the CDF for the microprocessor data. The initial estimate assigns equal probabilities to each interval. You can specify different initial values with the PROBLIST= option. The algorithm converges in 130 iterations for this data. Convergence is determined if the change in the loglikelihood between two successive iterations less than , where the default value is . You can specify a different value for delta with the TOLLIKE= option. This algorithm is an example of an expectationmaximization (EM) algorithm. EM algorithms are known to converge slowly, but the computations within each iteration for the Turnbull algorithm are moderate. Iterations will be terminated if the algorithm does not converge after a fixed number of iterations. The default maximum number of iterations is 1000. Some data may require more iterations for convergence. You can specify the maximum allowed number of iterations with the MAXITEM= option in the PROBPLOT, ANALYZE, or RPLOT statement.
Iteration History for the Turnbull Estimate of the CDF  

Iteration  Loglikelihood  (., 6)  (6, 12)  (24, 48)  (48, 168)  (168, 500)  (500, 1000)  (1000, 2000)  (2000, .) 
0  1133.4051  0.125  0.125  0.125  0.125  0.125  0.125  0.125  0.125 
25  104.16622  0.00421644  0.00140548  0.00140648  0.00173338  0.00237846  0.00846094  0.04565407  0.93474475 
50  101.15151  0.00421644  0.00140548  0.00140648  0.00173293  0.00234891  0.00727679  0.01174486  0.96986811 
75  101.06641  0.00421644  0.00140548  0.00140648  0.00173293  0.00234891  0.00727127  0.00835638  0.9732621 
100  101.06534  0.00421644  0.00140548  0.00140648  0.00173293  0.00234891  0.00727125  0.00801814  0.97360037 
125  101.06533  0.00421644  0.00140548  0.00140648  0.00173293  0.00234891  0.00727125  0.00798438  0.97363413 
130  101.06533  0.00421644  0.00140548  0.00140648  0.00173293  0.00234891  0.00727125  0.007983  0.97363551 
If an interval probability is smaller than a tolerance ( by default) after convergence, the probability is set to zero, the interval probabilities are renormalized so that they add to one, and iterations are restarted. Usually the algorithm converges in just a few more iterations. You can change the default value of the tolerance with the TOLPROB= option. You can specify the NOPOLISH option to avoid setting small probabilities to zero and restarting the algorithm.
If you specify the ITPRINTEM option, the table in Figure 12.44 summarizing the Turnbull estimate of the interval probabilities is printed. The columns labeled ’Reduced Gradient’ and ’Lagrange Multiplier’ are used in checking final convergence to the maximum likelihood estimate. The Lagrange multipliers must all be greater than or equal to zero, or the solution is not maximum likelihood. See Gentleman and Geyer (1994) for more details of the convergence checking.
Figure 12.45 shows the final estimate of the CDF, along with standard errors and confidence limits. Figure 12.46 shows the CDF and simultaneous confidence limits plotted on a lognormal probability plot.
Cumulative Probability Estimates  

Lower Lifetime  Upper Lifetime  Cumulative Probability 
Pointwise 95% Confidence Limits 
Standard Error  
Lower  Upper  
6  6  0.0042  0.0019  0.0094  0.0017 
12  24  0.0056  0.0028  0.0112  0.0020 
48  48  0.0070  0.0038  0.0130  0.0022 
168  168  0.0088  0.0047  0.0164  0.0028 
500  500  0.0111  0.0058  0.0211  0.0037 
1000  1000  0.0184  0.0094  0.0357  0.0063 
2000  2000  0.0264  0.0124  0.0553  0.0101 
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