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Usage Note 36478: The confidence interval for an odds ratio seems to disagree with the parameter p-value or confidence interval

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When a logistic model is fit using effects coding in the CLASS statement (the default when the PARAM= option is not specified), a parameter for a CLASS predictor does not compare the effects of two predictor levels. Instead, it compares the effect of the associated predictor level with the average effect of all the levels. As a result, exponentiating a parameter estimate does not result in an odds ratio comparing two predictor levels. Under effects coding, the odds ratio comparing two levels of a CLASS predictor is obtained by exponentiating a linear combination of parameters. In PROC LOGISTIC, the results in the "Odds Ratio Estimates" table use the appropriate linear combinations to provide estimates comparing the indicated levels of the predictor. This is discussed further in this usage note and in the LOGISTIC documentation. As a result, when using the default effects coding in PROC LOGISTIC, you may see that the confidence interval for the odds ratio includes 1 when the p-value for the associated parameter is significant, or vice versa. Similar results occur if odds ratios are computed using the proper linear combinations in PROC GENMOD. While this seems contradictory, the two are comparing different quantities as noted above.

However, under reference (also called dummy) coding, the odds ratio for comparing two levels of a predictor not involved in interactions can be obtained by simply exponentiating a parameter. By specifying the PARAM=REF (or PARAM=GLM) option in the CLASS statement, the confidence intervals in the "Odds Ratio Estimates" table from PROC LOGISTIC and the p-values and confidence intervals for the parameter estimates are both comparing two levels of the predictor.



Operating System and Release Information

Product FamilyProductSystemSAS Release
ReportedFixed*
SAS SystemSAS/STATz/OS
OpenVMS VAX
Microsoft® Windows® for 64-Bit Itanium-based Systems
Microsoft Windows Server 2003 Datacenter 64-bit Edition
Microsoft Windows Server 2003 Enterprise 64-bit Edition
Microsoft Windows XP 64-bit Edition
Microsoft® Windows® for x64
OS/2
Microsoft Windows 95/98
Microsoft Windows 2000 Advanced Server
Microsoft Windows 2000 Datacenter Server
Microsoft Windows 2000 Server
Microsoft Windows 2000 Professional
Microsoft Windows NT Workstation
Microsoft Windows Server 2003 Datacenter Edition
Microsoft Windows Server 2003 Enterprise Edition
Microsoft Windows Server 2003 Standard Edition
Microsoft Windows Server 2008
Microsoft Windows XP Professional
Windows Millennium Edition (Me)
Windows Vista
64-bit Enabled AIX
64-bit Enabled HP-UX
64-bit Enabled Solaris
ABI+ for Intel Architecture
AIX
HP-UX
HP-UX IPF
IRIX
Linux
Linux for x64
Linux on Itanium
OpenVMS Alpha
OpenVMS on HP Integrity
Solaris
Solaris for x64
Tru64 UNIX
* For software releases that are not yet generally available, the Fixed Release is the software release in which the problem is planned to be fixed.