# The BCHOICE Procedure (Experimental)

### PROC BCHOICE Statement

PROC BCHOICE <options> ;

The PROC BCHOICE statement invokes the BCHOICE procedure.

Table 27.2 summarizes the options available in the PROC BCHOICE statement.

Table 27.2: PROC BCHOICE Statement Options

Option

Description

Basic Options

Names the input data set

Specifies the number of burn-in iterations

Specifies the number of iterations, excluding the burn-in iterations

Specifies the number of threads for the computation

Specifies the number of tuning iterations for the random walk sampler

Names the output data set to contain posterior samples of parameters

Specifies the random seed for simulation

Specifies the thinning rate

Sampling, Summary, Diagnostics, and Plotting options

Specifies the algorithm to use to sample the posterior distribution

Controls the convergence diagnostics

Computes the deviance information criterion (DIC)

Outputs the average of estimated probabilities of chosen alternatives in the input data

Controls plotting

Controls posterior statistics

Other Options

Specifies the acceptance rate tolerance for the random walk sampler

Specifies the machine numerical limit for infinity

Calculates the logarithm of the posterior density and likelihood

Specifies the maximum number of tuning loops for the random walk sampler

Specifies the minimum number of tuning loops for the random walk sampler

Suppresses the Class Level Information table completely or partially

Specifies the target acceptance rate for the random walk sampler

You can specify the following options.

ACCEPTTOL=n

specifies a tolerance for acceptance probabilities for the random walk sampler. By default, ACCEPTTOL=0.075. You can specify this option for logit models.

ALGORITHM=GAMERMAN | RWM | LATENT
ALG=GAMERMAN | RWM | LATENT

specifies the algorithm to use to sample the posterior distribution for the regression coefficients. You can specify the following algorithms:

GAMERMAN

uses the Metropolis-Hastings approach of Gamerman (1997). This is the default for logit models.

RWM

uses the random walk Metropolis algorithm along with the normal proposal, as suggested in Rossi, Allenby, and McCulloch (2005).

LATENT

uses the latent variables via the data augmentation method. This is the default for probit models. This option is ignored for logit models.

When possible, PROC BCHOICE samples directly from the full conditional distribution. Otherwise, the default sampling algorithm is the Gamerman algorithm for logit models and the latent variables via the data augmentation method for probit models.

DATA=SAS-data-set

specifies the input data set.

DIAGNOSTICS=NONE | (keyword-list)
DIAG=NONE | (keyword-list)

specifies options for convergence diagnostics. By default, PROC BCHOICE computes the effective sample sizes. The sample autocorrelations, Monte Carlo errors, Geweke test, Raftery-Lewis test, and Heidelberger-Welch test are also available. For more information about convergence diagnostics, see the section Assessing Markov Chain Convergence. You can request all the diagnostic tests by specifying DIAGNOSTICS=ALL. You can suppress all the diagnostic tests by specifying DIAGNOSTICS=NONE.

You can specify one or more of the following keyword-list options:

ALL

computes all diagnostic tests and statistics. You can combine the option ALL with any other specific tests to modify test options. For example, DIAGNOSTICS=(ALL AUTOCORR(LAGS=(1 5 35))) computes all tests by using default settings and autocorrelations at lags 1, 5, and 35.

AUTOCORR <(autocorrelation-options)>
AC <(autocorrelation-options)>

computes default autocorrelations at lags 1, 5, 10, and 50 for each variable. You can choose other lags by using the following autocorrelation-option:

LAGS=(numeric-list)

specifies autocorrelation lags. The numeric-list must take positive integer values.

ESS

computes the effective sample sizes (Kass et al., 1998) of the posterior samples of each parameter. It also computes the correlation time and the efficiency of the chain for each parameter. Small values of ESS might indicate a lack of convergence. For more information, see the section Effective Sample Size.

GEWEKE <(Geweke-options)>

computes the Geweke spectral density diagnostics; this is a two-sample t-test between the first portion (as specified by the FRAC1= option) and the last portion (as specified by the FRAC2= option) of the chain. For more information, see the section Geweke Diagnostics. By default, FRAC1=0.1 and FRAC2=0.5, but you can choose other fractions by using the following Geweke-options:

FRAC1=value
F1=value

specifies the beginning proportion of the Markov chain. By default, FRAC1=0.1.

FRAC2=value
F2=value

specifies the end proportion of the Markov chain. By default, FRAC2=0.5.

HEIDELBERGER <(Heidel-options)>
HEIDEL <(Heidel-options)>

computes the Heidelberger-Welch diagnostic (which consists of a stationarity test and a half-width test) for each variable. The stationary diagnostic test tests the null hypothesis that the posterior samples are generated from a stationary process. If the stationarity test is passed, a half-width test is then carried out. For more information, see the section Heidelberger and Welch Diagnostics.

You can also specify suboptions, such as DIAGNOSTICS=HEIDELBERGER(EPS=0.05), as follows:

EPS=value

specifies a small positive number such that if the half-width is less than times the sample mean of the retaining iterations, the half-width test is passed. By default, EPS=0.1.

HALPHA=value

specifies the level for the half-width test. By default, HALPHA=0.05.

SALPHA=value

specifies the level for the stationarity test. By default, SALPHA=0.05.

MAXLAG=n

specifies the maximum number of autocorrelation lags to use to compute the effective sample size; for more information, see the section Effective Sample Size. The value of n is also used in the calculation of the Monte Carlo standard error; see the section Standard Error of the Mean Estimate. By default, MAXLAG=MIN(500, MCsample/4), where MCsample is the Markov chain sample size that is kept after thinning—that is, MCsample . If n is too low, you might observe significant lags and the effective sample size cannot be calculated accurately. A warning message appears in the SAS log, and you can increase either the MAXLAG= option or the NMC= option, accordingly. Specifying this option implies the ESS and MCSE options.

MCSE
MCERROR

computes the Monte Carlo standard error for the posterior samples of each parameter.

NONE

suppresses all the diagnostic tests and statistics. This option is not recommended.

RAFTERY <(Raftery-options)>
RL <(Raftery-options)>

computes the Raftery-Lewis diagnostic, which evaluates the accuracy of the estimated quantile ( for a given Q ) of a chain. can achieve any degree of accuracy when the chain is allowed to run for a long time. The algorithm stops when the estimated probability reaches within of the value Q with probability S; that is, . For more information, see the section Raftery and Lewis Diagnostics.

You can specify Q, R, S, and a precision level for a stationary test by specifying the following Raftery-options—for example, DIAGNOSTICS=RAFTERY(QUANTILE=0.05):

ACCURACY=value
R=value

specifies a small positive number as the margin of error for measuring the accuracy of estimation of the quantile. By default, ACCURACY=0.005.

EPS=value

specifies the tolerance level (a small positive number) for the stationary test. By default, EPS=0.001.

PROB=value
S=value

specifies the probability of attaining the accuracy of the estimation of the quantile. By default, PROB=0.95.

QUANTILE=value
Q=value

specifies the order (a value between 0 and 1) of the quantile of interest. By default, QUANTILE=0.025.

DIC

computes the deviance information criterion (DIC). DIC is calculated by using the posterior mean estimates of the parameters. For more information, see the section Deviance Information Criterion (DIC).

HITPROB
HITPROBABILITY

calculates the average of estimated probabilities of all chosen alternatives in the input data set. You can use this average as a measure of goodness of fit.

INF=value

specifies the numerical definition of infinity in PROC BCHOICE. By default, INF=1E15. For example, PROC BCHOICE considers 1E16 to be outside the support of the normal distribution and assigns a missing value to the log density evaluation. The minimum value that is allowed is 1E10, and the maximum value that is allowed is 1E27.

LOGPOST

calculates the logarithm of the posterior density of the parameters and the likelihood at each iteration. As a result, the OUTPOST= data set will contain the LOGLIKE and LOGPOST variables. You can specify this option for logit models and nested logit models, but not probit models.

MAXTUNE=n

specifies an upper limit for the number of proposal tuning loops for the random walk sampler. By default, MAXTUNE=6. You can specify this option for logit models.

MINTUNE=n

specifies a lower limit for the number of proposal tuning loops for the random walk sampler. By default, MINTUNE=2. You can specify this option for logit models.

NBI=n

specifies the number of burn-in iterations to perform before beginning to save parameter estimate chains. By default, NBI=500. For more information, see the section Burn-in, Thinning, and Markov Chain Samples.

NMC=n

specifies the number of iterations in the main simulation loop. This is the MCMC sample size if THIN=1. By default, NMC=5000.

NOCLPRINT<=number>

suppresses the display of the Class Level Information table if you do not specify number. If you specify number, the values of the classification variables are displayed for only those variables whose number of levels is less than number. Specifying a number helps reduce the size of the Class Level Information table if some classification variables have a large number of levels.

specifies the number of threads for analytic computations and overrides the SAS system option THREADS | NOTHREADS. If you do not specify the NTHREADS= option or if you specify NTHREADS=0, the default number of threads is 1.

NTU=n

specifies the number of iterations to use in each proposal tuning phase for the random walk sampler. By default, NTU=500. You can specify this option for logit models.

OUTPOST=SAS-data-set
OUT=SAS-data-set

specifies an output data set to contain the posterior samples of all parameters and the iteration numbers. It contains the log of the posterior density (LOGPOST) and the log likelihood (LOGLIKE) if you specify the LOGPOST option. By default, no OUTPOST= data set is created.

PLOTS <(global-plot-options)> <= plot-request <(options)>>
PLOTS <(global-plot-options)> <= (plot-request <(options)> <... plot-request <(options)>>)>

controls the display of diagnostic plots. You can request three types of plots: trace plots, autocorrelation function plots, and kernel density plots. By default, the plots are displayed in panels unless you specify the global-plot-option UNPACK. Also, when you specify more than one type of plot, the plots are grouped by parameter unless you specify the global-plot-option GROUPBY=TYPE. When you specify only one plot-request, you can omit the parentheses around it, as shown in the following example:

   plots=none
plots(unpack)=trace
plots=(trace density)


If ODS Graphics is enabled but you do not specify the PLOTS= option, then PROC BCHOICE produces, for each parameter, a panel that contains the trace plot, the autocorrelation function plot, and the density plot. This is equivalent to specifying PLOTS=(TRACE AUTOCORR DENSITY).

You can specify the following global-plot-options:

FRINGE

adds a fringe plot to the horizontal axis of the density plot.

GROUPBY=PARAMETER | TYPE
GROUP=PARAMETER | TYPE

specifies how the plots are grouped when there is more than one type of plot. By default, GROUPBY=PARAMETER. You can specify the following values:

TYPE

groups the plots by type.

PARAMETER

groups the plots by parameter.

LAGS=n

specifies the number of autocorrelation lags that are used in plotting the ACF graph. By default, LAGS=50.

SMOOTH

smooths the trace plot by using a fitted penalized B-spline curve (Eilers and Marx, 1996).

UNPACKPANEL
UNPACK

unpacks all paneled plots, so that each plot in a panel is displayed separately.

You can specify the following plot-requests:

ALL

requests all types of plots. PLOTS=ALL is equivalent to specifying PLOTS=(TRACE AUTOCORR DENSITY).

AUTOCORR
ACF

displays the autocorrelation function plots for the parameters.

DENSITY
D
KERNEL
K

displays the kernel density plots for the parameters.

NONE

suppresses the display of all plots.

TRACE
T

displays the trace plots for the parameters.

Consider a model that has four parameters, X1–X4. The following list shows which plots are produced for various option settings:

• PLOTS=(TRACE AUTOCORR) displays the trace and autocorrelation plots for each parameter side by side, with two parameters per panel:

 Display 1 Trace(X1) Autocorr(X1) Trace(X2) Autocorr(X2) Display 2 Trace(X3) Autocorr(X3) Trace(X4) Autocorr(X4)

• PLOTS(GROUPBY=TYPE)=(TRACE AUTOCORR) displays all the paneled trace plots, followed by panels of autocorrelation plots:

 Display 1 Trace(X1) Trace(X2) Display 2 Trace(X3) Trace(X4) Display 3 Autocorr(X1) Autocorr(X2) Autocorr(X3) Autocorr(X4)

• PLOTS(UNPACK)=(TRACE AUTOCORR) displays a separate trace plot and a separate correlation plot, parameter by parameter:

 Display 1 Trace(X1) Display 2 Autocorr(X1) Display 3 Trace(X2) Display 4 Autocorr(X2) Display 5 Trace(X3) Display 6 Autocorr(X3) Display 7 Trace(X4) Display 8 Autocorr(X4)

• PLOTS(UNPACK GROUPBY=TYPE)=(TRACE AUTOCORR) displays all the separate trace plots, followed by the separate autocorrelation plots:

 Display 1 Trace(X1) Display 2 Trace(X2) Display 3 Trace(X3) Display 4 Trace(X4) Display 5 Autocorr(X1) Display 6 Autocorr(X2) Display 7 Autocorr(X3) Display 8 Autocorr(X4)

SEED=n

specifies the random number seed. By default, SEED=0, and PROC BCHOICE gets a random number seed from the system clock. Negative seed values are treated as the default. The largest possible value for the seed is . Analyses that use the same nonzero seed are reproducible. The seed value is reported in the Model Information table.

STATISTICS<(global-stats-options)> =  NONE | ALL |stats-request
STATS<(global-stats-options)> =  NONE | ALL |stats-request

specifies options for posterior statistics. By default, PROC BCHOICE computes the posterior mean, standard deviation, quantiles, and two 95% credible intervals: equal-tail and highest posterior density (HPD). Other available statistics include the posterior correlation and covariance. For more information, see the section Summary Statistics. You can request all the posterior statistics by specifying STATS=ALL. You can suppress all the calculations by specifying STATS=NONE.

You can specify the following global-stats-options:

ALPHA=numeric-list

specifies the level for the equal-tail and HPD intervals. The value of must be between 0 and 0.5. By default, ALPHA=0.05.

PERCENT=numeric-list
PERCENTAGE=numeric-list

calculates the posterior percentages. The numeric-list contains values between 0 and 100. By default, PERCENTAGE=(25 50 75).

You can specify the following stats-requests:

ALL

computes all posterior statistics. You can combine the ALL option with any other options. For example, STATS(ALPHA=(0.02 0.05 0.1))=ALL computes all statistics by using the default settings and intervals at levels of 0.02, 0.05, and 0.1.

BRIEF

computes the posterior means, standard deviations, and HPD credible interval for each variable. By default, ALPHA=0.05, but you can use the global ALPHA= option to request other values. This is the default output for posterior statistics.

CORR

computes the posterior correlation matrix.

COV

computes the posterior covariance matrix.

INTERVAL
INT

computes the equal-tail and HPD credible intervals for each variable. For more information, see the sections Equal-Tail Credible Interval and Highest Posterior Density (HPD) Interval. By default, ALPHA=0.05, but you can use the global ALPHA= option to request other intervals of any probabilities.

NONE

suppresses all the statistics.

SUMMARY
SUM

computes the posterior means, standard deviations, and percentile points for each variable. By default, the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile points are produced, but you can use the global PERCENT= option to request specific percentile points.

TARGACCEPT=value

specifies the target acceptance rate for the random walk–based Metropolis algorithm for logit models. For more information, see the section Metropolis and Metropolis-Hastings Algorithms in Chapter 7: Introduction to Bayesian Analysis Procedures. The numeric value must be between 0.01 and 0.99. By default, TARGACCEPT=0.45 for models with one parameter; TARGACCEPT=0.35 for models with two, three, or four parameters; and TARGACCEPT=0.234 for models with more than four parameters (Roberts, Gelman, and Gilks; 1997; Roberts and Rosenthal; 2001).

THIN=n
NTHIN=n

controls the thinning rate of the simulation. PROC BCHOICE keeps every nth simulation sample and discards the rest. All posterior statistics and diagnostics are calculated by using the thinned samples. By default, THIN=1. For more information, see the section Burn-in, Thinning, and Markov Chain Samples.