The METHOD= option controls which forecasting method is used. The TREND= option controls the degree of the time trend model used. For example, the following statements produce forecasts of SALES as in the preceding example but use the double exponential smoothing method instead of the default STEPAR method:
proc forecast data=past interval=month lead=10 method=expo trend=2 out=pred outfull outresid outest=est outfitstats; var sales; id date; run; proc print data=est; run;
The PRINT procedure prints the OUTEST= data set for the EXPO method, as shown in Figure 16.7.
Figure 16.7: The OUTEST= Data Set for METHOD=EXPO
Obs | _TYPE_ | date | sales |
---|---|---|---|
1 | N | JUL91 | 25 |
2 | NRESID | JUL91 | 25 |
3 | DF | JUL91 | 23 |
4 | WEIGHT | JUL91 | 0.1055728 |
5 | S1 | JUL91 | 11.427657 |
6 | S2 | JUL91 | 10.316473 |
7 | SIGMA | JUL91 | 0.2545069 |
8 | CONSTANT | JUL91 | 12.538841 |
9 | LINEAR | JUL91 | 0.1311574 |
10 | SST | JUL91 | 21.28342 |
11 | SSE | JUL91 | 1.4897965 |
12 | MSE | JUL91 | 0.0647738 |
13 | RMSE | JUL91 | 0.2545069 |
14 | MAPE | JUL91 | 1.9121204 |
15 | MPE | JUL91 | -0.816886 |
16 | MAE | JUL91 | 0.2101358 |
17 | ME | JUL91 | -0.094941 |
18 | MAXE | JUL91 | 0.3127332 |
19 | MINE | JUL91 | -0.460207 |
20 | MAXPE | JUL91 | 2.9243781 |
21 | MINPE | JUL91 | -4.967478 |
22 | RSQUARE | JUL91 | 0.930002 |
23 | ADJRSQ | JUL91 | 0.9269586 |
24 | RW_RSQ | JUL91 | -0.243886 |
25 | ARSQ | JUL91 | 0.9178285 |
26 | APC | JUL91 | 0.0699557 |
27 | AIC | JUL91 | -66.50591 |
28 | SBC | JUL91 | -64.06816 |
29 | CORR | JUL91 | 0.9772418 |
See the section Syntax: FORECAST Procedure for other options that control the forecasting method. See the section Introduction to Forecasting Methods and the section Forecasting Methods for an explanation of the different forecasting methods.