Supplement A Decision Making Supplement A Decision Making TRUE/FALSE 1. The break-even point is the volume at which the total revenues equal total cost. Answer: True Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Easy Keywords: break-even, revenue, cost 2. The variable cost is the portion of total cost that remains constant regardless of changes in levels of production. Answer: False Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Easy Keywords: variable, cost, output 3. Fixed cost is the portion of the total cost that remains constant regardless of changes in levels of output. Answer: True Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: fixed, cost, break-even 4. Sensitivity analysis is a technique for systematically changing parameters in a model to determine the effects of such changes. Answer: True Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: sensitivity, analysis, parameter 5. A preference matrix is a table that allows the manager to rate an alternative according to one performance criterion. Answer: False Reference: Preference Matrix Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: preference, matrix, alternative 6. Decision theory is a general approach to decision making when the outcomes associated with alternatives are often in doubt. Answer: True Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: decision, theory, uncertainty, risk 12 Supplement A Decision Making 7. A payoff table shows the amount for each alternative if each possible event occurs. Answer: True Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: payoff, table, event 8. Maximax is a decision rule for the pessimist. Answer: False Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: maximax, optimist 9. By definition, the maximax and maximin criteria cannot result in the selection of a common alternative in decision making under uncertainty. Answer: False Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: maximax, maximin 10. Making a decision under risk using the expected value criterion is the equivalent of using the Laplace decision rule under uncertainty. Answer: True Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: Laplace, expected, value 11. The square nodes in a decision tree represent the alternatives in a sequential decision situation. Answer: False Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: node, decision, tree, sequential MULTIPLE CHOICE 12. Which one of the following statements about break-even analysis for evaluating products or services is true? a. The break-even quantity will tend to increase as the variable cost per unit of production decreases. b. As sales increase beyond the break-even quantity, total before-tax profits tend to decrease. c. A restaurant’s opening of downsized facilities with only drive-through service is an example of lowering fixed costs and the break-even quantity. d. Increasing the unit selling price has the effect of increasing the break-even quantity. Answer: c Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: break-even, fixed, cost 13 Supplement A Decision Making 13. Which one of the following statements about break-even analysis, as we applied it to evaluating products or services, is best? a. Break-even analysis assumes that the cost function is linear and consists of fixed costs plus variable costs times volume. b. The break-even quantity will increase when the change in variable cost per unit is identical to the change in unit price. c. Increasing the price, while keeping the variable cost per unit constant, increases the break-even quantity. d. Increasing the fixed costs tends to decrease the break-even quantity. Answer: a Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: break-even, volume, cost 14. Which condition would result in invalidating an application of break-even analysis? a. The variable cost to produce a unit is less than one percent of the fixed cost to run the plant. b. The purchasing department both offers quantity discounts to customers and receives quantity discounts from suppliers. c. The variable cost to produce a unit is within one percent of the sale price. d. The labor to manufacture the item is free. Answer: b Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: break-even, volume, cost 15. Mantel Incorporated began producing its new line of dolls at its Connecticut plant in December of year 0. In year 1, it produced 30,000 dolls at a total cost of $385,000. In year 2, its production increased to 80,000 dolls at a total cost of $885,000. Assuming the cost structure was the same for both years, what must be the variable cost (c) and the fixed cost (F) per doll? a. F is less than $80,000, and c is greater than $7. b. F is greater than $60,000, and c is less than $5. c. F is less than $100,000, and c is greater than $9. d. F is greater than $110,000, and c is less than $6. Answer: c Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: break-even, variable, fixed 16. The break-even quantity for a certain kitchen appliance is 6000 units. The selling price is $10 per unit, and the variable cost is $4 per unit. What must be the fixed cost to break even at 6000 units? a. Less than $35,000 b. Between $35,000 and $40,000 c. Between $40,001 and $45,000 d. Above $45,000 Answer: b Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: break-even, fixed 14 Supplement A Decision Making 17. A “Little Sis” restaurant has been opened as a prototype to test the concept of a smaller facility with a limited menu. Experience during the first two years was as follows: The average sale is $10 per customer. Use the following partially completed graph to determine the break-even quantity graphically. Then refine your solution by solving it algebraically. (Show your work for credit.) a. The break-even quantity is fewer than or equal to 30,000 customer visits. b. The break-even quantity is more than 30,000 customer visits and fewer than or equal to 50,000 visits. c. The break-even quantity is more than 50,000 visits and fewer than or equal to 70,000 visits. d. The break-even quantity is more than 70,000 customer visits. Answer: d Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Hard Keywords: break-even, quantity 15 Supplement A Decision Making 18. Minor Video has opened a new store renting videocassettes. Fixed costs are $60,000, and the variable cost per unit is $1.50. The average sale is $5 per customer. Use the following axes to determine the break-even quantity graphically. Next, refine your solution by solving it algebraically. (Show your work for credit.) a. The break-even quantity is fewer than or equal to 10,000 rentals. b. The break-even quantity is more than 10,000 rentals and fewer than or equal to 20,000 rentals. c. The break-even quantity is more than 20,000 rentals and fewer than or equal to 25,000 rentals. d. The break-even quantity is more than 25,000 rentals. Answer: b Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: break-even, quantity 19. A new product is being considered that will require $45,000 in fixed costs per year. Variable costs per unit are estimated to be $12.72. The firm wants to break even if 8000 units are produced and sold per year. What should be the price? a. Less than $16.00 b. Between $16.00 and $16.99 c. Between $17.00 and $17.99 d. Between $18.00 and $18.99 Answer: d Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: break-even, cost 20. A software company that sells its software pre-installed in personal computers is considering making its own computers instead of purchasing them from the Mega-Chip Company. To assemble their own computers could cost $1,000,000 in fixed costs and $100 per unit in variable costs. The company currently buys PCs for $1200, with no fixed costs. What is the break-even quantity? a. Greater than or equal to 1800 b. Greater than 900 but fewer than 1800 c. Greater than 450 but fewer than 900 d. Less than 450 Answer: b Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Hard 16 Supplement A Decision Making Keywords: break-even, quantity 21. A new product will sell in the market for $12. It costs $7 (unit variable cost) to manufacture on a new lathe machine. If the break-even quantity is 10,000 units, what is the annual fixed cost involved in acquiring the machine and in paying other fixed costs? a. Less than $40,000 b. Greater than $40,000 but less than or equal to $55,000 c. Greater than $55,000 but less than or equal to $70,000 d. Greater than $70,000 Answer: b Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: break-even, fixed 22. A new product that will sell for $75.00 has variable costs of $38.00 per unit. Fixed costs of $75,000 must be incurred every year to manufacture this product. What is the annual volume to break even? a. Fewer than 1500 units. b. 1500 to 1749 units. c. 1750 to 1999 units. d. 2000 units or more. Answer: d Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: break-even, volume 23. Commodore is debating whether to produce the printed circuit boards for a new line of video cameras or outsource their production to a company that specializes in this operation. Strictly from a cost standpoint, production of the circuit boards would definitely be outsourced if: a. the variable cost of producing the circuit boards is lower than the buy option. b. the production volumes are greater than Commodore’s break-even quantity. c. the production volumes are less than Commodore’s break-even quantity. d. the production volumes are the same for making and buying the circuit boards. Answer: c Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Easy Keywords: break-even, fixed 24. A poultry farmer with an MBA is debating whether to acquire Rhode Island Reds or Buff Orpingtons to lay the free range eggs he wants to sell. The fixed costs for the Buffs would be $7500 and the variable costs per egg would be a dime per egg. The Reds would have a fixed cost of $6000 and a variable cost of fifteen cents. At what level of egg production would our well-educated poultry farmer be indifferent between Rhode Island Reds and Buff Orpingtons? a. 20,000 eggs b. 30,000 eggs c. 50,000 eggs d. 60,000 eggs Answer: b Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: break-even, processes 17 Supplement A Decision Making 25. Zipco is in serious negotiations to purchase a chunking machine that will enable them to perform their own chunking at $1 per unit. They currently have their chunking outsourced at a cost of $1.50 per unit and a fixed cost of $45,000. Their marketing team feel that they can sustain an annual volume of 10,000 units. What is the maximum fixed cost that Zipco should be willing to bear in order to perform their own chunking? a. $50,000 b. $45,000 c. $40,000 d. $35,000 Answer: a Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: break-even, processes 26. Demron is in serious negotiations to purchase a welding machine that will enable them to perform their own welding. They currently have their welding outsourced at a cost of $1.50 per weld and a fixed cost of $45,000. Their marketing team feel that they can sustain an annual sales volume sufficient to require 35,000 welds. If a fancy new welding rig costs $13,500 what is the maximum variable cost per weld that Demron should be willing to pay in order to bring this process in-house? a. $3.00 per weld b. $2.40 per weld c. $2.00 per weld d. $1.45 per weld Answer: b Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: break-even, processes The following is used for Items 27-32 Luvmatics plans to produce a new product. Three different models are planned: the Regular, Large, and Jumbo. The fixed costs depend on which of two locations are used; in San Francisco the fixed costs would be $2.5 million per year, but in Tuttle the fixed costs would be $1.2 million. Sale prices and variable costs for the three models are shown in the table. Table A.1 Variable Cost Sale Price Regular $5/unit $25/unit Model Large $7/unit $41/unit Jumbo $10/unit $68/unit 27. Use the information in Table A.1. How many units of the Regular size must be sold each year to break even if production is at the San Francisco plant? a. Fewer than 30,000 units b. More than 30,000 units but fewer than 80,000 units c. More than 80,000 units but fewer than 130,000 units d. More than 130,000 units Answer: c Reference: Break-Even Analysis 18 Supplement A Decision Making Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: break-even, volume 28. Use the information in Table A.1. If executives decide to produce at the San Francisco plant but are nervous about sales numbers, which model would provide the greatest profit at the lowest sales volumes? a. Regular b. Large c. Jumbo d. It doesn’t matter because the fixed costs are the same for the same site. Answer: c Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: break-even, volume 29. Use the information in Table A.1. What is the difference in break-even points for the Large model between Tuttle and San Francisco? a. Fewer than 25,000 units b. Between 25,000 units and 40,000 units c. Between 40,000 units and 55,000 units d. More than 55,000 units Answer: b Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: break-even, volume 30. Use the information in Table A.1. How much does Luvmatics make for each Jumbo unit that is produced in Tuttle and sold at the listed price? a. $68 b. $58 c. $34 d. This cannot be determined without any information on the production volume. Answer: b Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Easy Keywords: break-even, slope 31. Use the information in Table A.1. What is the slope of the fixed-cost line for production in San Francisco? a. $2,500,000 b. $25 c. $20 d. 0 Answer: d Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Easy Keywords: break-even, slope 19 Supplement A Decision Making 32. Use the information in Table A.1. Assume the fixed costs and sales price in both locations are constants and the variable costs in San Francisco are as shown in the table. By how much would the variable cost in Tuttle have to rise to give both locations an identical break-even point for the Regular model? a. $0.40 b. $5.40 c. $10.40 d. $15.40 Answer: c Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: break-even, variable, cost 33. A company is screening ideas for new services. Five alternative service ideas are being considered. Management identified four criteria and weighted them as follows: A = 30, B = 10, C = 20, and D = 40. They have also come up with scored values for the five alternatives and the four criteria as shown following. Management has decided that if an alternative has less than a total scored value of 600, it should automatically be rejected. Use the preference matrix technique to determine which idea should be accepted. a. Service #1 or #2 b. Service #3 or #4 c. Service #5 d. None Answer: d Reference: Preference Matrix Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: preference, matrix 20 Supplement A Decision Making 34. The Forsite Company is screening three new product ideas. Resource constraints allow only one idea to be commercialized at the present time. The following estimates have been made for the five performance criteria that management feels are most important. If the five criteria are equally weighted, what are the best and worst alternatives? a. A is best, and B is worst. b. B is best, and C is worst. c. B is best, and A is worst. d. C is best, and A is worst. Answer: b Reference: Preference Matrix Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: preference, matrix 21 Supplement A Decision Making 35. California Manufacturing, Inc. is now evaluating two new product ideas, and management has decided to apply the preference matrix method. The following table shows five criteria with different weights and individual scores of each product idea. If management has established a threshold of 800, which product(s) should be accepted for further development? a. Product A b. Product B c. Both products A and B d. Neither product A nor B Answer: b Reference: Preference Matrix Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: preference, matrix 36. Choosing the alternative that is the “best of the worst” using decision making under uncertainty would be: a. maximin. b. maximax. c. Laplace. d. minimax regret. Answer: a Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: maximin, decision 37. Choosing the alternative that is the best weighted payoff using decision making under uncertainty would be: a. maximin. b. maximax. c. Laplace. d. minimax regret. Answer: c Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: Laplace, weighted, payoff 22 Supplement A Decision Making 38. Choosing the alternative that minimizes lost-opportunity costs using decision making under uncertainty would be: a. maximin. b. maximax. c. Laplace. d. minimax regret. Answer: d Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: opportunity, cost, minimax, regret 39. The decision rule in decision making under uncertainty that would be best for the manager who has high expectations would be: a. maximin. b. maximax. c. Laplace. d. minimax regret. Answer: b Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: maximax 40. The decision rule in decision making under uncertainty most appropriate for the pessimistic manager would be: a. maximin. b. maximax. c. Laplace. d. minimax regret. Answer: a Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: pessimistic, maximin 23 Supplement A Decision Making 41. The decision rule most appropriate for the realistic manager using decision making under uncertainty would be: a. maximin. b. maximax. c. Laplace. d. minimax regret. Answer: c Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: realistic, Laplace The following is used for Items 42 –47 Table A.2 A company that is introducing a new product has to choose between three different manufacturing methods, referred to as methods A, B, and C. Depending on the demand for the product, they have forecast different levels of revenue for the year (values are in thousands). The company has identified three possible states of nature for economic growth and named them High, Medium, and Low. Method A Method B Method C Method D High $80 $22 $9 $44 Medium $61 $46 $14 $55 Low $38 $100 $52 $24 42. Using the information in Table A.2, which alternative is best in accordance with a decision criterion of maximin? a. A b. B c. C d. D Answer: a Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: maximin, decision, theory 43. Using the information in Table A.2, which alternative is best in accordance with a decision criterion of maximax? a. A b. B c. C d. D Answer: b Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate 24 Supplement A Decision Making Keywords: maximax, decision, theory 44. Using the information in Table A.2, which alternative is best in accordance with a decision criterion of Laplace? a. A b. B c. C d. D Answer: a Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: Laplace, decision, theory 45. Using the information in Table A.2, which alternative is best in accordance with a decision criterion of minimax regret? a. A b. B c. C d. D Answer: b Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: minimax, regret 46. Using the information in Table A.2, which alternative is best if further study revealed that the probability of high growth is 0.2, the probability of medium growth is 0.5, and the probability of low growth is 0.3? a. A b. B c. C d. D Answer: a Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: decision, theory, risk 25 Supplement A Decision Making The following is used for Items 47 –50 Table A.3 In choosing between three new jobs, Joe MBA considers the potential payoffs over the next three years. The following table contains the payoffs, given the speed of promotion in each of the organizations. The probability of fast promotion is 0.6, and the probability of slow promotion is 0.4. Alternative A. High-flying consultant B. Utility analyst C. Research assistant Slow Promotion ($180,000) $200,000 $250,000 Fast Promotion $600,000 $400,000 $260,000 47. Use the information in Table A.3. Which alternative is best, given the matrix payoff? a. The A alternative would be chosen using the maximin decision rule. b. The B alternative would be chosen using the maximax decision rule. c. The C alternative would be chosen using the Laplace decision rule. d. The C alternative would be chosen using the maximin decision rule. Answer: d Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: maximin, payoff 48. Use the information in Table A.3 and the Laplace decision rule. The weighted payoff is: a. less than $200,000 if the high-flying consultant job is selected. b. more than $280,000 if the Research Assistant job is selected. c. more than $280,000 if the utility analyst job is selected. d. highest for the research assistant position. Answer: c Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keyword: Laplace 49. Use the information in Table A.3 and the minimax regret decision rule. The maximum regret is: a. less than $300,000 if the high-flying consultant job is selected. b. less than $300,000 if the utility analyst job is selected. c. less than $300,000 if the research assistant job is selected. d. lowest for the research assistant job. Answer: b Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: minimax, regret 26 Supplement A Decision Making 50. Use the information in Table A.3 and the expected-value rule. Which statement is TRUE? a. The expected value of the consultant job is more than $300,000. b. The expected value of the utility analyst job is more than $300,000. c. The expected value of the research assistant job is less than $250,000. d. The job with the highest expected value is the research assistant. Answer: b Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: expected, value 51. When using decision tree analysis: a. the sum of the expected payoffs must always equal zero. b. round nodes represent decision points. c. there must be more square nodes than round nodes. d. probabilities for all branches leaving a chance node must sum to 1.0. Answer: d Reference: Decision Trees Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: decision, tree, probability 52. In order for a decision tree to be a valuable decision tool, the decision-maker should be in a condition of: a. certainty. b. risk. c. uncertainty. d. equilibrium. Answer: b Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: decision, tree, risk 27 Supplement A Decision Making 53. A crafty operations manager has developed this decision tree to evaluate the alternatives for a planned expansion. If the probability of high demand is 0.6, what is the best course of action? a. b. c. d. Alternative A Alternative B Alternative C Alternative D Answer: a Reference: Decision Trees Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: decision, tree, risk 28 Supplement A Decision Making 54. A wily marketing director must decide among four alternatives for a new marketing campaign. She ascertains that the probability of high demand is 0.8 and the probability of low demand is 0.2. What is the best choice with the payoffs shown in the tree? a. b. c. d. Alternative A Alternative B Alternative C Alternative D Answer: b Reference: Decision Trees Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: decision, tree, risk 29 Supplement A Decision Making 55. A wily marketing director must decide among four alternatives for a new marketing campaign. She ascertains that the probability of high demand is 0.45 and the probability of low demand is 0.55. What is the best choice with the payoffs shown in the tree? a. b. c. d. Alternative A Alternative B Alternative C Alternative D Answer: c Reference: Decision Trees Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: decision, tree, risk 30 Supplement A Decision Making 56. Erasmus Valero must decide among four alternatives for a oil exploration project. He estimates that the probability of high demand is 0.3 and the probability of low demand is 0.7. What is the best choice with the payoffs shown in the tree? a. b. c. d. Alternative A Alternative B Alternative C Alternative D Answer: d Reference: Decision Trees Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: decision, tree, risk FILL IN THE BLANK 57. The ____________ is the volume at which total revenues equal total costs. Answer: break-even point Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: break-even, point 58. ____________ is the portion of total cost that remains constant regardless of changes in levels of output. Answer: Fixed cost Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: fixed, cost 59. ____________ is a technique for systematically changing parameters in a model to determine the effects of such changes. Answer: Sensitivity analysis Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: sensitivity, analysis 31 Supplement A Decision Making 60. ____________ is a general approach to decision making when the outcomes associated with alternatives are often in doubt. Answer: Decision theory Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: decision, theory, alternative 61. In decision theory, the different courses of action that a decision maker can choose are called ____________. Answer: alternatives Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: alternative, decision, theory 62. A chance event that has an impact on the outcome of the choice but is not under the manager’s control is called a(n) ____________. Answer: state of nature Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: state, nature, event 63. A(n) ___________ shows the amount of revenue for each alternative if each possible event occurs. Answer: payoff table Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: payoff, table, alternative, event 64. The decision rule ____________ is also referred to as the pessimist’s criterion. Answer: maximin Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: maximin, pessimist, decision, rule 65. The decision rule ____________ chooses the alternative that is the “best of the best.” Answer: maximax Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: maximax, decision, rule 66. The decision rule ____________ chooses the alternative with the best weighted payoff. Answer: Laplace Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: Laplace, decision, rule 67. A(n) ____________ is the difference between a given payoff and the best payoff for a given state of nature. Answer: regret Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: minimax, decision, regret 32 Supplement A Decision Making 68. If probabilities for events can be estimated, then the situation faced by the decision maker is called ____________. Answer: decision making under risk, risk Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: decision, making, under, risk 69. A(n) ____________ is a schematic model of alternatives available to the decision maker, along with their possible consequences. Answer: decision tree Reference: Decision Tree Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: decision, tree, alternatives SHORT ANSWERS 70. What assumptions are made when using break-even analysis? Answer: Break-even analysis is useful to evaluate new or existing products or services and to compare production methods; however, decision makers who use this model make assumptions. Typically, single values are provided for fixed and variable cost and for revenues. This results in wonderfully straight lines that do not reflect realities such as start-up costs, economies of scale, price breaks offered to volume purchasers, and diseconomies of scale. Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Easy Keywords: break-even, fixed, variable 71. Why should a decision maker engage in sensitivity analysis? Answer: Sensitivity analysis is a technique for systematically changing parameters in a model to determine the effects of such changes. Models are created with assumptions and the results given by the use of a model are only as good as the assumptions that were made in creating the model. For techniques such as the Laplace criterion, if the probability for one state of nature or payoff was estimated incorrectly, the result might suggest a choice far different from the choice made if a better estimate were used. Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Easy Keywords: sensitivity, analysis 33 Supplement A Decision Making 72. The site selection team you formed last quarter meets with you in the conference room to present the results of their thoughtful analysis. They have collectively logged 200,000 frequent flyer miles while conducting their investigation. The conference room table sags under the weight of their massive report and all team members sport deep tans. As the leader drones on about their completely objective approach to the problem he projects a slide containing the following information about their location of choice. Rio de Janeiro Weight (A) Score (B) Weighted Score (A x B) Infrastructure 20 8 160 Utility Costs 25 5 125 Labor Skill 25 6 150 Labor Cost 20 7 140 Political climate 10 4 40 Final Weighted Score 615 What questions do you, a conscientious vice-president level executive, have for the team about this portion of their analysis? Answer: The preference matrix provides a vehicle for converting a subjective decision into a decision that appears more objective. This analysis should be questioned regarding the choice of criteria, the weights assigned to the criteria, and the scores assigned to each alternative. How did the committee settle on infrastructure, utility cost, labor skill, labor cost, and political climate as the most important factors? How were weights and scores assigned? If this is the only site’s results presented, then what was the margin of victory and what were the other sites? Comparing scores is also an issue; there is temptation to treat the scores as having greater significance than they actually carry. Reference: Preference Matrix Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: preference, matrix, criteria, weight 73. List and describe decision rules that are used for decision making under uncertainty. Answer: The decision rules include maximin, maximax, Laplace, and minimax regret. Maximin chooses the “best of the worst” and is for the pessimist. Maximax chooses the “best of the best” and is for the optimist. Laplace chooses the best weighted payoff and is for the realist. Minimax regret chooses the best “worst regret.” Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: Laplace, minimax, maximax, minimax, regret 74. Under what conditions can decision trees be useful? Answer: Decision trees are useful when there is uncertainty and sequential decisions are involved. Reference: Decision Trees Difficulty: Easy Keywords: decision, tree, sequential 34 Supplement A Decision Making PROBLEMS 75. A single factory produces two different products during each half of the year with equivalent fixed cost; from January through June they produce Product A and from July through December they produce Product B. Product A costs twice as much to produce and is sold at twice the price of Product B. Derive an expression relating the break-even quantity of Product A to that of Product B. Answer: QA FA pA cA QB FB p B cB FA FB ( same factory ) p A 2 pB ( A sells for twice as much as B ) c A 2cB ( A costs twice as much as B ) QA FB 1 FB 1 QB 2 p B 2c B 2 p B c B 2 The break-even point for Product A is half the quantity for Product B. Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Difficult Keywords: break-even, fixed, variable 35 Supplement A Decision Making 76. A new minor league baseball team is coming to town and the owners have decided to build a new stadium, either small or large. The success of the team with regard to ticket sales will be either high or low with probabilities of 0.75 and 0.25, respectively. If demand for tickets is high, the large stadium would provide a payoff of approximately $20 million. If ticket sales are low, the loss on the large stadium would be $5 million. If a small stadium is constructed, and ticket sales are low, the payoff is $500,000 after deducting the cost of construction. If ticket sales are high, the team can choose to build an upper deck, or to maintain the existing facility. Expanding the stadium in this scenario has a payoff of $10 million, whereas maintaining the same number of seats has a payoff of only $3 million. a. Draw a decision tree for this problem. b. What should management do to achieve the highest expected payoff? Answer: $0.5M Low Small .25 High .75 Large Low .25 Do Not Build Build -$5M $10M .75 High $20M Small Stadium: 0.25($500,000) + 0.75($10,000,000) = $7,625,000 Large Stadium: 0.25 (-$5,000,000) + 0.75($20,000,000) = $13,750,000 Select the large stadium based on expected value. Reference: Decision Trees Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: decision, tree, risk 36 $3M Supplement A Decision Making 77. The Hill O’Beans Coffee Company operates a chain of coffee shops downtown and has decided to open a new store. The demand will be weak, fair, or strong; probabilities are 0.25, 0.30, and 0.45, respectively. If the company installs a small booth that sells only coffee, the associated payoffs are -$25,000; 25,000; and $100,000 for weak, fair, and strong demand. If the company chooses an expanded facility that offers sandwiches and breakfast foods, it must build a kitchen and rent additional space. The payoffs for an expanded facility are -$200,000, -$25,000, and $500,000. a. Draw a decision tree for this problem. b. What should management do to achieve the highest expected payoff? Answer: -$25,000 Weak .25 Fair .30 Small .45 $25,000 Strong $100,000 Expand Weak .25 .45 Strong -$200,000 Fair .30 $500,000 -$25,000 Small: .25(<25,000>) + .30(25,000) + .45(100,000) = 46,250 Expand: .25(<200,000>) + .30(<25,000>) + .45(500,000) = 167,500 Therefore, expand based on the expected value. Reference: Decision Trees Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: decision, tree, risk 37 Supplement A Decision Making 78. Keith Monroe is deciding among four alternatives and fleshes out the decision tree shown below. He has developed excellent estimates of payoffs but admits he has no clue about the probabilities for the two states of nature. He wants to cover all of his bases, so he would like to calculate the probability of high demand for which each alternative is superior. Analyze this situation and make recommendations for him. He promises to cut you in for 30% of the profits if you can show him how to calculate the ranges. Answer: Approaches to this problem may vary. The value for each alternative is given by this set of equations: Alternative A : 800 pHIGH 500 pLOW VA Alternative B : 900 pHIGH 250 pLOW VB Alternative C : 650 pHIGH 650 pLOW VC Alternative D : 300 pHIGH 900 pLOW VD pLOW 1 pHIGH Alternative A : 800 pHIGH 500(1 pHIGH ) VA 300 pHIGH 500 Alternative B : 900 pHIGH 250(1 pHIGH ) VB 650 pHIGH 250 Alternative C : 650 pHIGH 650(1 pHIGH ) VC 650 Alternative D : 300 pHIGH 900(1 pHIGH ) VD 600 pHIGH 900 38 Supplement A Decision Making The second set of equations create lines as displayed in the graph, which shows the expected monetary value of the four alternatives plotted against the probability of high demand as it ranges from 0 to 1. 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 A B C D 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 The graph shows that Alternative D is initially superior, giving way to Alternative C, which yields to Alternative A, which is supplanted by Alternative B as the probability of high demand increases from 0 to 1. These three inflection points can be determined by setting up three sets of simultaneous equations. D&C VD 600 pHIGH 900 650 VC 600 pHIGH 250 pHIGH .416 C&A VC 650 300 pHIGH 500 VA 150 300 pHIGH pHIGH .5 A& B VA 300 pHIGH 500 650 pHIGH 250 VB 250 350 pHIGH pHIGH .714286 To summarize: Range 0.0 - 0.4167 0.4167 - 0.5 0.5 - 0.7143 0.7143 - 1.0 Best Alternative D C A B Reference: Decision Trees Difficulty: Difficult Keywords: decision, tree, risk 39 Supplement A Decision Making 79. A company is screening ideas for new services. Four alternative service ideas are being considered. Management identified four criteria and weighted them as follows: A = 40, B = 30, C = 20, and D = 10. They have also come up with scored values for the five alternatives and the four criteria as shown following. Management has decided that if an alternative has less than a total scored value of 600, it should automatically be rejected. Use the preference matrix technique to determine which idea should be accepted. Alternative 1 2 3 4 A 9 8 4 3 B 6 7 5 10 C 9 5 8 6 D 2 5 9 8 Criteria Answer: Alternative 1 A B C D Weight (A) Score (B) 9 40 6 30 9 20 2 10 Final Weighted Score Alternative 2 A B C D Weight (A) Score (B) 8 40 7 30 5 20 5 10 Final Weighted Score Weighted Score (A x B) 320 210 100 50 680 Alternative 3 A B C D Weight (A) Score (B) 4 40 5 30 8 20 9 10 Final Weighted Score Weighted Score (A x B) 160 150 160 90 560 Alternative 4 A B C D Weight (A) Score (B) 3 40 10 30 6 20 8 10 Final Weighted Score Weighted Score (A x B) 120 300 120 80 620 Therefore, select Alternative 1, with a weighted score of 740. Reference: Preference Matrix Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: preference, matrix 40 Weighted Score (A x B) 360 180 180 20 740 Supplement A Decision Making 80. A manufacturing firm is considering an entirely new product that will require additional capital equipment, training, and an addition to their existing facility that will cost $50,000 per year. The projected retail price is $45 per unit, and the variable cost of production is $12.50. What is the breakeven for this product? Solve using both the graphical and algebraic approaches. Answer: Q F $50, 000 / year 1538.46 units/year p c $45 / unit $12.50 / unit 100000 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 Total Cost 10000 R 0 e 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 0 f e rence: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: break-even, fixed, variable 41 Fixed Cost Total Revenue Supplement A Decision Making 81. A manufacturing firm is considering whether to produce or outsource the production of a new product. If they produce the item themselves, they will incur a fixed cost of $950,000 per year, but if they outsource overseas there will be a $1.5 million cost per year. The advantage of outsourcing overseas is the variable cost of 95¢ per unit, which is a fraction of their $43/unit cost in their own union shop. Regardless where these devices are made, they will sell for $98 each. What is the breakeven quantity for each alternative? Solve this problem graphically and algebraically. Answer: Overseas : F $1,500, 000 / year 15, 455.95 units p c $98 / unit $0.95 / unit In-house : F $950, 000 / year 17, 272.73 units p c $98 / unit $43/ unit $2,500,000 $2,000,000 Fixed Cost A Total Cost A Total Revenue Fixed Cost B Total Cost B $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 Units (1,000s) Reference: Break-Even Analysis Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: break-even, fixed 82. A company that is introducing a new product has to choose between four marketing plans, A through D. The marketing plans are forecasted to have varying payoffs, depending on the level of advertising. The probability of high demand is 0.6 and of low demand 0.4. Use the following decision rules to select the marketing plan: maximin, maximax, minimax regret, Laplace, and expected value. Marketing Plan A B C D Payoff (Dollars) High Demand Low Demand 100,000 25,000 50,000 45,000 75,000 35,000 125,000 10,000 42 Supplement A Decision Making Answer: 1: 2: High Demand Low Demand 3: Event 3 4: Event 4 5: Event 5 Probabilities----> A B C D 100000 50000 75000 125000 25000 45000 35000 10000 Use the dropdown list to select the decision rule >>> 1 Selected decision rule indicates you should select: B Payoff $45,000 1: 2: High Demand Low Demand 3: Event 3 4: Event 4 5: Event 5 Probabilities----> A B C D 100000 50000 75000 125000 25000 45000 35000 10000 Use the dropdown list to select the decision rule >>> 2 Selected decision rule indicates you should select: D Payoff $125,000 1: 2: High Demand Low Demand 3: Event 3 4: Event 4 5: Event 5 Probabilities----> A B C D 100000 50000 75000 125000 25000 45000 35000 10000 Use the dropdown list to select the decision rule >>> 4 Selected decision rule indicates you should select: A Regret $25,000 43 Supplement A Decision Making 1: 2: High Demand Low Demand 3: Event 3 4: Event 4 5: Event 5 Probabilities----> A B C D 100000 50000 75000 125000 25000 45000 35000 10000 Use the dropdown list to select the decision rule >>> 3 Selected decision rule indicates you should select: D Weighted Payoff $67,500 Probabilities----> A B C D High Demand Low Demand 0.6 0.4 100000 50000 75000 125000 Event 3 Event 4 Event 5 25000 45000 35000 10000 Use the dropdown list to select the decision rule >>> 5 Selected decision rule indicates you should select: D Expected Payoff $79,000 Reference: Decision Theory Difficulty: Moderate Keywords: maximin, maximax, Laplace, minimax, regret, expected, value 44