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Problem Note 42840: Predicted values, forecasts and residual-based statistics of fit are all missing when data has large variance

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When the variable being modeled in PROC UCM has large variance, the kalman filter algorithm may fail. In this case, the OUTFOR= data set has missing values for the FORECAST and RESIDUAL variables for all observations, and the following note is printed in the listing file immediately after the Likelihood Based Fit Statistics table:

NOTE:  For this model the collapse of the diffuse Kalman filter has 
       not occurred within the data span.  In this case the one step
       ahead forecasts and corresponding fit statistics are set to 
       missing.

Rescaling the data to reduce the variance in the response variable may circumvent the problem and allow the one-step-ahead predicted values, residuals and future-period forecasts to be computed.

Click the Hot Fix tab in this note to access the hot fix for this issue.



Operating System and Release Information

Product FamilyProductSystemProduct ReleaseSAS Release
ReportedFixed*ReportedFixed*
SAS SystemSAS/ETSz/OS9.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Microsoft® Windows® for 64-Bit Itanium-based Systems9.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Microsoft Windows Server 2003 Datacenter 64-bit Edition9.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Microsoft Windows Server 2003 Enterprise 64-bit Edition9.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Microsoft Windows XP 64-bit Edition9.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Microsoft® Windows® for x649.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Microsoft Windows Server 2003 Datacenter Edition9.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Microsoft Windows Server 2003 Enterprise Edition9.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Microsoft Windows Server 2003 Standard Edition9.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Microsoft Windows Server 2003 for x649.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Microsoft Windows Server 20089.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Microsoft Windows Server 2008 for x649.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Microsoft Windows XP Professional9.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Windows 7 Enterprise 32 bit9.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Windows 7 Enterprise x649.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Windows 7 Home Premium 32 bit9.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Windows 7 Home Premium x649.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Windows 7 Professional 32 bit9.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Windows 7 Professional x649.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Windows 7 Ultimate 32 bit9.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Windows 7 Ultimate x649.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Windows Vista9.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Windows Vista for x649.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
64-bit Enabled AIX9.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
64-bit Enabled HP-UX9.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
64-bit Enabled Solaris9.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
HP-UX IPF9.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Linux9.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Linux for x649.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
OpenVMS on HP Integrity9.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
Solaris for x649.229.39.2 TS2M39.3 TS1M0
* For software releases that are not yet generally available, the Fixed Release is the software release in which the problem is planned to be fixed.