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/****************************************************************/ /* S A S S A M P L E L I B R A R Y */ /* */ /* NAME: MCMCLAG */ /* TITLE: Simple Dynamic Linear Model */ /* PRODUCT: STAT */ /* SYSTEM: ALL */ /* KEYS: */ /* PROCS: MCMC */ /* DATA: */ /* */ /* SUPPORT: Fang Chen */ /* REF: PROC MCMC */ /* MISC: */ /****************************************************************/ data dlm; input time y; datalines; 1 1.353412529 2 4.840739953 3 1.604892523 4 6.8947921 5 3.509644288 6 4.020173553 7 3.842884451 8 4.49057276 9 2.204570502 10 4.007351323 11 2.005515044 12 2.781756057 ; proc mcmc data=dlm outpost=dlmO nmc=20000 seed=23; ods select PostSumInt; parms alpha 0; parms var_y 1 var_mu 1; prior alpha ~ n(0, sd=10); prior var_y var_mu ~ igamma(shape=3, scale=2); random mu ~ n(mu.l1,var=var_mu) s=time icond=(alpha) monitor=(mu); model y~n(mu, var=var_y); run;