Resources

Now-Casting the US Economy

/*--------------------------------------------------------------
                    SAS Sample Library

       Name: ssmex14.sas
       Description: Example program from SAS/ETS User's Guide,
              The SSM Procedure
       Title: Now-Casting the US Economy
       Product: SAS/ETS Software
        Keys: Multivariate Modeling, Factor Model
        PROC: SSM
        Notes:

--------------------------------------------------------------*/

data monthly;
   input PAYEMS W875RX1 INDPRO CMRMTSPL @@;
   date = intnx('month', '01mar1960'd, _n_-1);
   format date date.;
   ld_payemp = dif(log(PAYEMS));
   ld_indpro = dif(log(INDPRO));
   ld_pinc = dif(log(W875RX1));
   ld_mnfctr = dif(log(CMRMTSPL));
datalines;
   54458     2255.6      23.697             .
   54812     2263.6     23.5092             .
   54472     2269.4     23.4823             .
   54347     2268.5     23.1871             .
   54303     2270.9     23.1066             .
   54272     2267.4     23.0798             .
   54228     2268.8     22.8382             .
   54144     2275.6     22.8114             .
   53962     2261.8     22.4894             .
   53743     2247.3     22.0599             .
   53683     2268.6     22.0868             .
   53556       2269     22.0599             .
   53662     2279.8     22.1942             .
   53626     2288.4     22.6504             .
   53783     2300.9     22.9993             .
   53977     2320.1     23.3213             .
   54124     2325.8     23.5897             .
   54299     2335.1     23.8043             .
   54387     2339.9     23.7775             .
   54521     2364.4     24.2337             .
   54743     2386.7     24.6095             .
   54871       2399     24.8242             .
   54891     2394.7     24.6095             .
   55187     2407.3      25.012             .
   55276     2422.9     25.1462             .
   55601     2437.3     25.1999             .
   55626     2439.9      25.173             .
   55644     2445.1     25.1194             .
   55746     2455.5     25.3609             .
   55838     2457.8     25.3877             .
   55977     2460.7     25.5488             .
   56041     2467.6     25.5756             .
   56055     2481.7     25.6829             .
   56027     2494.3     25.6829             .
   56116       2488     25.8708             .
   56231     2494.2      26.166             .
   56322     2504.8      26.327             .
   56580       2513     26.5686             .
   56616     2522.4     26.8906             .
   56658     2536.9     26.9711             .
   56795     2537.9     26.8638             .
   56910     2547.5     26.9174             .
   57078     2564.6     27.1858             .
   57284     2579.7     27.3737             .
   57255     2585.1     27.5078             .
   57360     2603.1     27.4542             .
   57487     2604.2     27.6957             .
   57752     2627.1     27.8836             .
   57898     2639.4     27.8836             .
   57923     2655.8     28.3398             .
   58089     2672.9     28.5008             .
   58221     2683.9     28.5813             .
   58412     2695.1     28.7692             .
   58620     2715.4      28.957             .
   58903     2726.5     29.0644             .
   58794     2728.4     28.6618             .
   59217     2746.5     29.5475             .
   59420     2772.8     29.8963             .
   59583     2779.2     30.2184             .
   59800     2793.9     30.4063             .
   60003     2806.8     30.8088             .
   60258     2818.8      30.943             .
   60492     2836.1     31.1845             .
   60690     2843.9      31.426             .
   60963     2862.8     31.7212             .
   61228       2878     31.8554             .
   61490     2900.4      31.936             .
   61718     2929.8      32.258             .
   61997     2951.4     32.3922             .
   62321     2966.9     32.7947             .
   62528     2975.4     33.1168             .
   62796     2988.5     33.3315             .
   63191     3002.4     33.7877             .
   63436     3003.6     33.8414             .
   63711     3013.5     34.1634             .
   64110     3031.4     34.3244             .
   64301     3045.3     34.5123             .
   64507     3053.3     34.5391             .
   64645     3060.2     34.8612             .
   64854     3075.1     35.1027             .
   65019     3086.7     34.8612             .
   65199       3082     34.9417             .
   65407     3109.7     35.1065    334098.822
   65427     3108.2     34.7083    332816.432
   65530     3120.2     34.5127    335226.972
   65467     3121.2     34.8382    335007.732
   65618     3125.7     34.5343    334733.406
   65750       3138     34.5299    337219.964
   65887     3153.3     34.4513    335040.783
   66142     3165.6     35.1114    339541.265
   66163       3169     35.0543    340739.925
   66225     3164.9     35.3398    338375.657
   66703     3183.8     35.8452    347490.097
   66900       3213     36.2313    355216.383
   66805     3217.1     36.1923    351653.456
   67214       3243      36.322    350545.136
   67296     3258.6     36.4354    353153.984
   67555     3270.7     36.4881    352453.297
   67652     3289.7     36.8974    354923.329
   67904     3304.5      37.033    357433.022
   68126     3324.9     36.9762    360843.914
   68328       3336     37.0794     354691.97
   68487     3351.5     37.2198    359656.271
   68720     3356.5     37.2937    364526.928
   68985     3370.6     37.7761    367670.104
   69245       3383     37.8954    364260.314
   69438     3384.6     38.1246    364269.128
   69698     3397.6     38.3686    364836.508
   69906     3413.7     38.6695     366178.39
   70072     3426.8     38.5272    367761.546
   70328       3441     38.3816    367508.153
   70636     3453.9     38.7565    367297.726
   70730     3474.8     38.9612    367401.287
   71005     3497.9     39.0507    371387.271
   70918     3506.2     39.0419    373179.752
   71119       3514     39.0534    377496.248
   71088     3515.5     38.6852     372269.74
   71240     3520.8     38.5814    371583.375
   71176     3527.5      37.867    366900.009
   71302     3532.2      37.842    367226.115
   71453     3543.2     37.7929    362934.958
   71348       3531     37.6957    361100.612
   71122     3534.7     37.6518    365022.697
   71028       3528       37.53    366484.665
   71055       3555     37.6221    366875.772
   70932     3563.3     37.5551    366706.109
   70949     3562.6     37.2962    366069.321
   70519       3537     36.5501    362260.712
   70409       3534     36.3287    356180.379
   70790     3540.9      37.163    367483.915
   70866     3577.8     37.4489    371084.301
   70805     3581.5     37.3775    373156.616
   70859     3590.5      37.337    374704.517
   71037     3602.7     37.5467    376742.679
   71247       3616     37.7372    378582.534
   71253     3615.5     37.8955    383781.499
   71316     3621.5     37.7855    379361.442
   71368     3642.3     37.5662    381745.541
   71620     3646.3     38.1767    385182.873
   71642     3662.6     38.4625    385449.487
   71844     3680.8     38.6257    391966.097
   72108     3709.7     39.0717    395625.975
   72445     3728.7     40.0117    399808.063
   72652     3747.4     40.3863    395492.668
   72945     3766.7     40.6932    402820.136
   73163     3785.1     41.1121    405556.782
   73467     3798.8     41.0952    408054.356
   73760     3806.8     41.2011    409834.718
   73709     3833.9     41.1857     407289.77
   74137     3872.4     41.7243    417053.117
   74268     3890.2      42.042    424225.244
   74672     3955.2     42.6136    430080.828
   74965     3985.3     43.1166    438308.392
   75270     4006.8      43.609    444154.061
   75620     3985.8     43.9067    449811.338
   76017     4000.3     44.5663    450514.229
   76286       4000     44.5794    448715.138
   76456       4013     44.5048    446858.758
   76646     4026.3     44.7958    445426.536
   76886       4041     44.8142    444537.456
   76911     4056.6     45.0052    450595.755
   77166     4041.6     44.9305    441284.109
   77281     4066.2     45.3328    444330.335
   77605     4104.3     45.6448    455727.517
   77909       4114     45.8713    463099.053
   78035       4103     45.7546    456900.837
   78104     4056.9      45.428    457312.876
   78253     4029.4     45.2944    455068.694
   78295     4000.4     45.2926    456607.782
   78384     3979.9     45.1762    453279.519
   78547     3982.4     45.5011    455274.714
   78602     3986.2     45.4698    453686.049
   78634     3995.4     45.4636    452648.239
   78619     3976.6     45.0367    448257.928
   78614     3969.5     45.0701    444460.337
   78627     3983.9     44.9004    436849.729
   78259     3953.6     43.4215    432175.177
   77657     3938.1     41.8828    419506.623
   77297     3926.4     41.3274    418453.389
   76919     3907.6     40.3683    415748.693
   76649     3907.1      39.947     403260.82
   76463     3904.6     39.9698    407300.787
   76623     3924.1     39.8807    407207.142
   76519     3930.5     40.1552    410868.122
   76768     3930.7     40.5908    412908.487
   77154     3963.1     40.9436    417752.702
   77232     3975.7     41.4621    418753.054
   77535     3992.1     41.6199    419264.247
   77679       4001     41.7229    418649.494
   78017     4000.7     42.2509    423083.873
   78506     4022.6      42.872    433558.924
   78817     4048.8     43.2761    435462.678
   79049     4065.3     43.3203    438754.585
   79293     4085.6     43.5819    440853.341
   79311     4098.3     43.7805    440366.385
   79376     4099.4     43.7814    445779.083
   79546     4113.9     44.0401    446089.764
   79704     4128.4     44.3343    447631.056
   79892     4134.6     44.4697    448926.666
   79905     4139.9      44.494    443629.648
   80237     4173.3     45.1501    451005.591
   80448     4181.1     45.6195    462689.217
   80692       4157     45.3563    459671.635
   80987     4173.5     46.0255    465921.632
   81391     4196.3     46.5966    471557.976
   81730     4224.3     47.0473    470987.291
   82089     4250.4     47.4442    471284.752
   82488     4265.6     47.7972    475536.248
   82836     4284.8     47.8684    476830.756
   83074     4297.7      47.889    477618.478
   83532       4332      48.126    479372.399
   83794     4382.3     48.2491    482962.869
   84173     4410.4     48.2611    485169.593
   84408     4432.2     48.3308    491599.168
   84595     4413.5     47.6711    476548.719
   84948     4436.2     47.9159    487477.674
   85461     4463.2     48.8332    492372.568
   86163     4497.4     49.8095     507289.71
   86509     4498.1     49.9957    506807.162
   86951     4523.8     50.3438     509616.52
   87205     4532.9     50.3213    505417.906
   87481     4552.5     50.5155    512009.432
   87618     4563.9     50.6615    510840.519
   87954     4588.8      51.073     515398.29
   88391       4596     51.4378    517631.454
   88674     4628.2     51.7286    520402.253
   88811     4630.6     51.3846    514709.722
   89054       4657     51.6782    512277.148
   89480     4672.1     51.8417    527101.747
   89418     4627.7     51.2822    512880.884
   89790       4614     51.6752    524235.099
   90108     4621.7     51.6881    518882.996
   90214     4627.4     51.5907    518226.377
   90296     4634.2      51.252    519126.474
   90323     4639.2     51.3239    516195.927
   90480     4645.8     51.6002    514653.534
   90574     4662.7     51.5484    514848.537
   90669       4677     51.5847    513344.704
   90800     4670.4     51.8063    517690.947
   90879     4651.2      51.847    512821.392
   90991     4627.5     51.6878    501144.376
   90846       4596      50.644    490415.932
   90415     4580.1     49.3989    484137.291
   90095     4584.3     48.7957    482743.629
   89832     4570.6     48.4736     488834.98
   90092     4590.5     48.6131    492358.246
   90205     4611.8     49.3959    502728.634
   90485     4684.9     50.0159    513227.923
   90741     4712.2     50.8791    513569.453
   90936     4731.7       51.18     514837.52
   91031     4715.3     50.8967    517971.883
   91098     4698.7     50.6602     515836.77
   91202     4710.1     50.9233    510507.803
   91276     4705.1     50.7052    510793.145
   91286     4718.9     51.0166    507180.641
   91482     4746.7      51.252    505842.064
   91594     4794.7     51.5741    507005.469
   91558     4816.2     51.5705    504975.019
   91471     4815.2     51.2438     501501.33
   91371       4803     50.8858    494686.157
   91162       4805     50.3243    490862.124
   90884       4802     49.7682    484507.466
   90557     4787.9     48.7888    481958.111
   90551     4804.9     49.7437    489651.346
   90422     4800.2     49.3759    490042.453
   90141     4827.1      48.948    490595.511
   90096     4828.2      48.646    493120.628
   89853     4806.9     48.4828    486129.182
   89510     4793.6     48.3296    484255.174
   89352     4799.3     47.9279    479815.286
   89171     4790.5     47.7652    480741.824
   88894     4786.1     47.3544    475794.048
   88770       4790     47.1694    477089.658
   88756     4818.9     46.8266    475778.624
   88981     4817.6     47.7233    484857.809
   88903     4817.5     47.4359     482815.24
   89076     4836.1     47.8323    490912.803
   89352     4842.1     48.4137    490867.633
   89629     4871.3     48.7457    498495.867
   90007     4877.6     49.0101    511303.237
   90425     4907.5     49.7548    511031.115
   90117     4908.7     50.2966    510196.019
   91231     4944.3     51.0627    518003.832
   91502     5001.6     51.4756    523679.838
   91854     5033.8     51.6343    529053.975
   92210     5081.2     51.8982    538852.577
   92657     5104.1     52.9491     542335.08
   93136     5142.6     53.2113    542043.127
   93411     5176.3     53.4583    542506.946
   93774     5212.6     53.7883    545512.409
   94082     5227.5     54.0548    549822.295
   94461     5271.9     54.2465    554712.782
   94773     5288.5     54.4259    551750.286
   95014     5326.3     54.4674    551611.471
   95325     5375.7     54.3806    550931.716
   95611     5352.7     54.3072    553243.102
   95960     5381.8     54.5132    558154.522
   96087     5407.7     54.5701    558822.158
   96353     5402.7     54.4381    557426.292
   96477     5407.4     54.6703    559324.537
   96823     5431.7     54.7362    564220.533
   97018     5422.7     54.6038    563642.135
   97292     5431.2     54.6728    570171.966
   97437     5452.3     54.7111    560741.335
   97626     5451.4      54.332    561817.705
   97819     5460.7     54.5721    572028.346
   98023     5486.4     54.8033    573563.027
   98210       5516     54.5836    568274.823
   98419     5528.4     54.7706    572433.775
   98587     5566.6     55.3344     569375.43
   98710     5543.3     55.6058    577933.507
   98817     5572.2     55.1999    574646.007
   98910     5624.9     54.8525    575206.777
   99098     5644.4     54.8901    586789.046
   99223     5650.6     54.9861    581161.515
   99130     5654.5     54.8093    584889.699
   99448     5676.2     55.1631    588345.761
   99561       5701     55.0442    589181.958
   99907     5709.5     55.1398    603159.343
  100094     5712.9     55.3932    594640.927
  100280     5728.2     55.6496      592818.7
  100484     5753.1     56.1365    605229.454
  100655     5740.9     55.9547    586122.512
  100887       5762      56.678    607264.311
  101136     5779.4     56.7669    607847.115
  101474       5777     57.1074    606102.008
  101701       5808      57.498    605090.639
  101872     5812.1     57.8001    608110.424
  102218     5834.9     58.1706    613384.306
  102388     5873.1     58.5913    610679.609
  102617     5879.9      58.747    617409.951
  103109     5920.1      59.638    616698.247
  103340     5951.9     59.9544    614989.496
  103634     6023.6     60.2339     620200.58
  103728     5994.2       60.26    618784.884
  104180     6021.6     60.5044    625778.534
  104456     6025.3     60.6476    635801.884
  104701     6050.4     60.9699    632392.094
  104928     6056.5     60.9173    634377.374
  105291       6080     61.0666    640596.523
  105514     6110.7     61.1463    637998.692
  105635     6126.5     61.4037    638367.765
  105975     6137.6      61.193    640892.882
  106243     6176.1     61.5135    645868.201
  106582     6176.5     61.6195    648361.369
  106871     6215.2     61.8878     656812.58
  107133     6260.5     62.0475    657562.844
  107391     6280.5     61.7888    650376.395
  107583     6306.4     61.9629    646504.989
  107756     6287.9     61.9874    652401.337
  107874     6258.8     61.5734    649492.824
  107991     6274.4     61.6115    647489.917
  108030     6297.9     61.0181    640848.814
  108077     6308.3     61.5467    657116.652
  108326     6322.2     61.3895    652512.609
  108437     6350.5     61.3233    646213.036
  108714     6353.1     61.5088    651992.603
  108809     6362.7     61.8707    654147.546
  109145     6364.7     61.4958    649037.818
  109394     6388.3     62.0704    658681.079
  109609     6390.1      62.404    662519.434
  109650     6427.2      62.322    654884.589
  109800     6411.7     62.4423    660205.845
  109822     6423.7     62.6427    661912.392
  109776     6448.2     62.5518     658365.99
  109570     6407.6     62.7296    664988.364
  109484       6399     62.8545    652761.596
  109325     6336.1     62.3786    649962.152
  109178     6332.6     61.6223    642278.833
  109120     6357.3     61.1932    635593.661
  108997     6290.5      60.924    631404.963
  108692     6290.6     60.5331     635141.96
  108534     6293.8     60.2184    631469.964
  108322     6305.9     60.3174    643912.667
  108196     6302.3      60.924    649194.261
  108286     6337.5     61.5212    646286.851
  108236     6321.8     61.5051    654722.638
  108255     6328.2     61.5969    651963.958
  108289     6345.8     62.1338    654752.384
  108305     6333.3     61.9979     655413.41
  108248     6351.5      61.931    653291.518
  108272     6395.6     61.7052    644974.715
  108324     6418.2     61.3182    657468.097
  108257     6457.8     61.7969    659121.763
  108313     6464.4     62.2883    661774.678
  108472     6483.4     62.7326     666184.82
  108598     6519.3     62.9558    660388.728
  108659     6548.8     62.9521    667350.429
  108731       6539     63.4965    676287.494
  108872     6563.6     63.1787    665529.303
  108909       6528     63.3148    674782.559
  109088     6490.7     63.8104    677513.696
  109227     6512.3     64.0769    678668.287
  109440     6778.1     64.0921    689232.577
  109750     6564.3     64.4088    690958.955
  109991     6593.4     64.6457    690073.181
  109942       6567     64.6214    685710.412
  110251     6624.8      64.816    689253.509
  110519     6625.7     64.5884    690345.303
  110693     6606.6     64.7227    696727.504
  110992     6624.5     64.9215    693356.274
  111154     6635.7     64.8955    696909.286
  111396     6618.5     65.2022    703115.214
  111676     6589.1     65.6822    706118.474
  111938       6609      65.948    709740.893
  112250     6866.1     66.2804    711985.075
  112519     6701.4     66.5468    712795.933
  112722       6712     66.5809    719315.848
  113188     6733.9     67.2653    731292.529
  113538     6804.5     67.6227    727440.953
  113869     6828.4      67.994    729201.485
  114179     6815.8      68.446     735895.47
  114541     6833.9     68.5541    732669.665
  114839     6842.7      68.944    749970.906
  115193     6874.3     69.1631    746724.169
  115400     6927.8     69.7669    752423.311
  115818       6923     70.2129    759052.295
  116094     6951.5     70.9458    764752.539
  116414     6978.1     71.0841    768131.481
  116621     6993.9     71.0389    763809.475
  116844     7009.6     71.1524    763539.557
  117005     7018.1     71.1219    757826.093
  116991     7017.1     71.3093     763406.25
  117223     7048.7     71.5697    770764.566
  117302     7071.3     71.2942    761652.329
  117577     7084.5     72.2334    777081.766
  117821     7117.9     72.5002    776132.093
  117971     7140.1     72.3714    776537.522
  118119     7171.3     72.5587    782894.384
  118251     7178.2     72.8395     786604.94
  118229       7187     72.3593    778753.059
  118664     7249.3     73.5136    785789.676
  118928     7271.3     73.3994    786180.782
  119090     7286.2     74.0141    793215.196
  119413     7324.6     74.5297    799250.359
  119694     7378.9     75.1926    795482.513
  119928     7370.8     75.0932    801764.459
  120127     7401.4     75.5821    804516.528
  120347     7430.6     75.9835    806976.645
  120594     7436.5     75.9867    813293.846
  120893       7463     76.6111    819310.279
  121061     7496.2     77.1026    813409.525
  121293     7531.5       77.19        823900
  121595     7568.4     78.1257        840042
  121910     7603.9      78.726        840871
  122201     7614.9     78.7613        842808
  122461       7655     79.3048        842727
  122718     7684.1     79.6636        853518
  123007       7725     80.1496        861915
  122996     7773.8     81.2117        859947
  123504     7801.1      81.919        866149
  123844     7846.8     82.4793        863693
  124148     7907.6     83.2123        872977
  124452     7955.1     83.5079        870517
  124725     8034.7      83.921        872158
  124919       8095     83.9956        884007
  125065     8147.4     84.0506        888507
  125344     8183.7     84.3708        888917
  125744     8227.7     84.9363        892269
  125954     8278.1     84.4407        888601
  126074     8300.5     84.0818        883849
  126425     8337.2     85.8655        893188
  126644     8366.7     85.5895        901547
  126838     8386.7     86.2691        908554
  127119       8427     86.1935        912572
  127466     8443.8     86.4992        919192
  127589     8455.1     86.8865        918227
  127998     8492.3     87.2633        932062
  128106     8499.2     87.4504        930482
  128479     8494.9     87.6525        928953
  128692     8516.7     88.3035        942728
  128955     8547.9     88.1345        942620
  129248     8565.5      88.732        944097
  129439     8603.7     89.1042        951552
  129642       8604     88.8555        950147
  130045     8666.6      89.992        957822
  130336     8740.6      90.442        962461
  130636     8821.7     91.1624        967665
  130869     8923.1     91.2332        973830
  130999     8963.6     91.5783        957324
  131470     8991.4     91.9442        968167
  131757     9027.4     92.5202        976522
  131982     9031.4     92.6592        970616
  131936     9070.2     92.7126        976860
  132102     9122.8     92.4984        971360
  132104     9163.5     92.2519        971131
  132231     9162.2     92.7005        981268
  132219     9177.1     92.2835        974326
  132442     9178.7     92.2721        966963
  132580     9174.7      91.978        974625
  132548     9222.8     91.3166        967525
  132617     9249.8     90.7666        971790
  132588     9278.3     90.5202        960803
  132307     9239.1     90.2684        953215
  132266     9206.5     89.6126        961671
  132140     9191.4     89.0137        948846
  132018     9190.5     88.6214        952418
  131862     9191.3     88.3938        959677
  131618     9191.3     88.1055        940545
  131291     9159.3     87.6738        967071
  130995     9163.7     87.2008        962196
  130823     9170.9     87.2224        964791
  130680     9172.5       87.76        979234
  130545       9170     87.7249        981258
  130523     9159.5     88.3748        975249
  130440     9150.7     88.7446        986973
  130434     9164.9     89.2026        989251
  130486     9187.1     90.0745        991362
  130394     9154.8     89.7723        990668
  130380     9148.7     89.8958        998966
  130322     9144.8     89.9425        990892
  130446     9159.3     89.6446        987628
  130453     9174.3     90.1355        995574
  130291     9184.2     89.7289        988954
  130380       9163     90.3564        994553
  130222     9138.2     90.6904        983275
  130007     9159.2       90.51        991919
  129956     9206.5     89.7698        989477
  129946     9282.6     89.7575        997656
  129943     9315.3     89.7652       1006593
  129963     9320.8     90.0817       1016212
  129919     9330.4     89.9743       1011918
  130024     9342.7     90.5213       1018477
  130221     9399.9     90.4884       1020031
  130234     9474.3      91.173       1021749
  130353     9473.9     91.0979       1020629
  130512     9458.8     91.3636       1015940
  130555     9461.8     91.8804       1021109
  130888     9493.3      91.388       1046552
  131135       9527     91.7603       1035907
  131441     9585.6     92.4272       1037416
  131519     9594.1     91.6958       1036635
  131556     9639.5     92.4141       1040068
  131681     9661.2     92.5783       1047541
  131836     9676.6     92.6156       1052640
  132179     9687.9        93.5       1051835
  132244     9664.4     93.6866       1055680
  132372    10028.3     94.3195       1071023
  132502     9724.7     94.7075       1075294
  132742     9724.9     95.3015       1074561
  132877     9757.9     95.2423       1067565
  133239     9775.2      95.326       1083776
  133407     9821.6        95.5       1081125
  133653     9862.1        95.9       1091532
  134025     9905.9     95.7684       1090839
  134217     9903.3     95.8884       1093851
  134282     9864.1     94.0153       1088628
  134363     9925.7      95.184       1088698
  134698    10002.2     96.1125       1100981
  134856    10068.9     96.6602       1108901
  135130    10193.3      96.754       1113201
  135446    10264.1     96.8319       1116601
  135726    10288.6     97.0741       1118408
  135907    10285.9     97.4499       1108367
  135928    10268.1     97.3416       1116669
  136008      10289     97.7165       1113571
  136218    10275.4     97.7638       1111853
  136397    10270.1      97.966       1117624
  136556      10347      97.837       1113413
  136553    10426.6     97.7452       1115989
  136758    10479.3     97.6316       1117627
  136927    10507.3     98.6314       1133244
  137161    10497.8     98.1608       1126250
  137251    10532.8     99.2559       1133579
  137437    10575.2     99.3295       1134048
  137513    10587.1    100.0512       1132031
  137654    10583.4    100.1109       1140565
  137734    10578.9    100.1159       1136101
  137699    10593.1    100.1435       1133462
  137675    10592.5    100.2699       1145652
  137752    10613.7    100.7148       1146560
  137838    10593.3    100.2223       1149913
  137949      10589    100.8053       1147748
  138042    10622.5      100.82       1142148
  138056    10641.4    100.4978       1146546
  137971    10656.5    100.3008       1132020
  137892    10670.5    100.0078       1116685
  137677      10606     99.2273       1131060
  137491    10561.7     98.7652       1121551
  137322    10495.6     98.5639       1119917
  137106    10455.2     98.1182       1102264
  136836    10485.4     96.5457       1091918
  136377    10466.7     92.4795       1063957
  135905    10498.5      93.245       1052108
  135130    10528.7     92.1643       1027024
  134425    10418.9     89.5631       1021565
  133631    10214.9     87.5481       1000331
  132936    10059.2     86.9871       1004647
  132106     9991.3     85.6509        985435
  131402     9984.3     84.9332        978613
  131050     9989.3     84.0667        977082
  130578     9923.8     83.7572        974787
  130227     9887.3     84.4816        990992
  130017     9856.6     85.3714        990158
  129784     9839.2     85.9532        990929
  129614     9835.1     86.2231        994607
  129593     9856.1     86.6394       1003005
  129373     9874.2     87.0436       1007118
  129360     9830.8      87.964       1001232
  129320     9798.1     88.3021       1008448
  129474     9817.4     88.9705       1020195
  129703     9914.3     89.2674       1027769
  130224    10000.2     90.6754       1026468
  130094    10008.6     90.8744       1034509
  130008    10034.4     91.4059       1045441
  129971      10048     91.6491       1047270
  129928    10048.2     91.8829       1048330
  130156    10086.6     91.5685       1049678
  130300    10121.7     91.8155       1055097
  130395    10206.6     92.7225       1056460
  130464    10386.3     92.6088       1067165
  130660    10427.1     92.1748       1053497
  130865    10413.5     93.1137       1067678
  131169      10408     92.5765       1060989
  131284    10412.1     92.9126       1056979
  131493    10467.3     93.0774       1067378
  131571    10523.9     93.6088       1071718
  131703    10514.6     94.1212       1079070
  131928    10484.3     94.2216       1070254
  132094    10476.1     94.7474       1083468
  132268    10452.3     94.9598       1079745
  132498    10522.1     95.5239       1086347
  132809    10596.9     96.1959       1087809
  133080    10653.7     96.6672       1091060
  133285    10664.5     96.1393       1091361
  133397    10680.5     96.8572       1095126
  133522    10680.4     97.1042       1101802
  133609    10695.5     97.1322       1093590
  133762    10675.9     97.5571       1102989
  133927    10665.1      96.785       1099198
  134065    10687.4     96.9549       1103022
  134225      10723     96.8409       1099601
  134472    10886.8     98.1118       1117999
  134691    11269.4     98.1502       1120944
  134839      10662     98.1693       1117429
  135171    10778.3      98.826       1120133
  135313    10830.2     99.0834       1114994
  135512    10875.7     98.8036       1122262
  135688      10894     98.9614       1135043
  135860    10886.9      99.159       1132747
  135949    10891.6     99.0082       1138004
  136187    10928.5     99.4701       1140346
  136350    10976.5    100.1183             .
  136554          .     99.9778             .
       .          .           .             .
;

data quarterly;
   input GDPC1 @@;
   date = intnx('qtr', '01apr1960'd, _n_-1);
   format date date.;
   ld_gdp = dif(log(GDPC1));
datalines;
       3108.4     3116.1     3078.4     3099.3     3156.9
       3209.6     3274.6     3333.6     3369.5     3401.6
       3414.8     3452.8     3497.8     3566.1     3591.5
       3669.2     3712.9     3763.3     3776.6     3869.8
       3922.7     4002.4     4096.7     4197.9     4215.1
       4245.2     4281.6     4320.9     4324.7     4362.0
       4397.1     4486.4     4562.2     4595.0     4615.4
       4687.1     4702.1     4731.5     4711.0     4702.8
       4711.1     4752.8     4703.9     4829.9     4857.4
       4895.3     4909.5     4997.0     5112.7     5159.8
       5245.5     5374.7     5435.6     5406.1     5456.5
       5411.2     5425.4     5372.8     5351.4     5286.7
       5327.4     5415.5     5488.5     5612.4     5654.8
       5683.6     5726.2     5792.9     5906.6     6011.1
       6011.7     6032.6     6267.2     6328.5     6413.3
       6426.1     6433.9     6480.1     6496.8     6517.9
       6385.7     6376.0     6494.1     6628.6     6580.2
       6655.7     6578.0     6468.0     6503.3     6479.8
       6486.2     6571.1     6721.1     6852.7     6994.0
       7132.9     7258.2     7329.6     7388.1     7461.5
       7529.9     7647.0     7704.4     7775.8     7811.5
       7890.1     7931.0     7986.4     8076.1     8149.4
       8283.8     8330.4     8440.5     8489.2     8601.6
       8688.4     8756.7     8822.1     8840.7     8937.5
       8972.1     8974.3     8897.8     8856.1     8924.9
       8967.7     9006.8     9113.2     9213.7     9303.3
       9396.5     9414.0     9469.9     9516.1     9643.1
       9737.6     9870.7     9928.9    10041.6    10075.9
      10111.1    10197.7    10270.1    10337.4    10517.9
      10615.2    10727.4    10809.1    10972.2    11112.0
      11198.2    11309.0    11418.7    11568.1    11757.9
      11867.8    11967.7    12120.1    12329.8    12365.2
      12598.7    12614.8    12682.0    12645.7    12712.8
      12674.1    12705.2    12824.6    12894.7    12956.7
      12962.9    13028.6    13151.8    13374.0    13525.7
      13606.6    13710.7    13831.0    13947.7    14100.2
      14177.2    14292.9    14372.0    14546.4    14591.6
      14604.4    14718.4    14728.1    14841.5    14941.5
      14996.1    14895.4    14969.2    14895.1    14574.6
      14372.1    14356.9    14402.5    14540.2    14597.7
      14738.0    14839.3    14942.4    14894.0    15011.3
      15062.1    15242.1    15381.6    15427.7    15534.0
      15539.6    15583.9    15679.7    15790.1
;
data weekly;
   input ICSA @@;
   date = intnx('week.7', '07jan1967'd, _n_-1); *week ends on Friday;
   format date date.;
   l_icsa = log(icsa);
datalines;
208000    207000    217000    204000    216000
229000    229000    242000    310000    241000
245000    247000    259000    257000    299000
245000    255000    254000    231000    230000
228000    248000    238000    224000    218000
209000    240000    241000    240000    209000
221000    202000    215000    213000    218000
231000    220000    209000    204000    231000
206000    223000    207000    222000    214000
198000    191000    196000    221000    204000
219000    216000    222000    222000    221000
198000    244000    210000    196000    193000
190000    204000    190000    200000    192000
191000    171000    183000    251000    209000
194000    199000    194000    199000    192000
194000    189000    194000    214000    186000
180000    205000    206000    218000    192000
193000    188000    189000    195000    191000
189000    185000    186000    191000    182000
181000    183000    192000    199000    162000
188000    195000    192000    223000    190000
191000    192000    193000    203000    197000
192000    192000    201000    191000    189000
181000    183000    182000    190000    187000
177000    177000    183000    179000    180000
187000    192000    182000    191000    203000
227000    210000    206000    192000    196000
203000    199000    199000    195000    182000
209000    195000    193000    193000    200000
199000    205000    198000    211000    197000
217000    202000    202000    222000    232000
223000    230000    242000    268000    256000
239000    256000    265000    271000    242000
262000    271000    264000    276000    273000
305000    374000    349000    334000    318000
303000    296000    301000    301000    298000
296000    291000    277000    288000    294000
287000    261000    266000    300000    303000
297000    324000    292000    325000    333000
350000    327000    334000    330000    327000
336000    314000    314000    337000    308000
306000    289000    321000    303000    288000
299000    312000    292000    296000    282000
268000    290000    297000    287000    291000
300000    299000    279000    284000    288000
290000    293000    284000    295000    299000
301000    295000    299000    291000    277000
264000    313000    304000    308000    349000
325000    320000    307000    359000    312000
302000    308000    299000    313000    299000
294000    283000    301000    295000    274000
278000    299000    280000    269000    244000
279000    295000    250000    263000    269000
276000    266000    258000    254000    257000
264000    266000    264000    258000    274000
259000    259000    265000    271000    266000
267000    267000    264000    268000    275000
286000    350000    297000    318000    276000
247000    250000    246000    256000    262000
258000    259000    258000    255000    251000
263000    250000    257000    234000    255000
242000    271000    235000    226000    252000
263000    246000    225000    226000    245000
229000    214000    228000    226000    216000
218000    225000    229000    228000    232000
222000    247000    230000    243000    236000
248000    238000    237000    238000    232000
246000    237000    242000    237000    248000
232000    241000    250000    256000    265000
258000    254000    242000    252000    245000
246000    249000    236000    246000    249000
235000    246000    282000    254000    233000
256000    266000    272000    326000    300000
269000    340000    321000    291000    302000
369000    311000    292000    301000    305000
315000    314000    323000    296000    297000
296000    283000    287000    296000    298000
309000    278000    314000    303000    308000
325000    311000    304000    303000    320000
335000    347000    332000    343000    350000
350000    357000    370000    366000    371000
413000    389000    414000    406000    441000
449000    518000    474000    528000    510000
521000    537000    456000    554000    575000
555000    559000    545000    530000    544000
546000    551000    531000    550000    555000
537000    520000    531000    513000    505000
507000    514000    493000    475000    529000
497000    497000    459000    423000    446000
445000    454000    454000    459000    444000
457000    446000    447000    456000    433000
445000    426000    429000    404000    426000
414000    415000    386000    401000    387000
373000    368000    365000    391000    362000
402000    370000    363000    359000    353000
344000    347000    349000    348000    360000
368000    366000    380000    373000    361000
367000    385000    395000    382000    394000
402000    382000    407000    399000    387000
394000    372000    406000    394000    388000
378000    382000    400000    394000    421000
383000    403000    423000    408000    411000
403000    409000    414000    390000    383000
408000    377000    402000    395000    365000
333000    380000    416000    368000    423000
422000    565000    477000    399000    362000
361000    355000    369000    356000    350000
376000    361000    375000    375000    384000
381000    375000    381000    363000    358000
359000    365000    350000    361000    366000
365000    365000    378000    359000    367000
365000    374000    359000    362000    380000
348000    365000    358000    375000    349000
366000    334000    360000    354000    367000
364000    359000    344000    364000    346000
343000    352000    363000    360000    373000
429000    371000    355000    359000    347000
335000    333000    345000    309000    319000
324000    334000    322000    334000    318000
310000    331000    326000    330000    348000
356000    352000    349000    346000    365000
354000    343000    333000    313000    337000
322000    323000    318000    343000    316000
338000    316000    317000    304000    342000
359000    377000    344000    347000    352000
358000    359000    392000    337000    342000
348000    359000    367000    360000    355000
363000    359000    353000    360000    465000
457000    383000    357000    353000    344000
346000    349000    336000    365000    351000
379000    369000    368000    368000    395000
386000    412000    386000    387000    390000
389000    378000    384000    388000    390000
412000    393000    406000    398000    395000
414000    430000    414000    416000    415000
411000    471000    428000    394000    405000
446000    412000    404000    425000    415000
428000    409000    418000    432000    435000
475000    464000    544000    548000    563000
572000    601000    642000    627000    637000
610000    592000    599000    627000    579000
533000    567000    558000    569000    533000
525000    512000    502000    511000    492000
465000    463000    462000    447000    425000
418000    419000    407000    427000    398000
412000    416000    413000    412000    399000
410000    419000    421000    396000    419000
420000    423000    438000    434000    409000
408000    401000    412000    417000    396000
392000    436000    413000    423000    414000
415000    417000    428000    425000    435000
444000    460000    426000    430000    407000
476000    448000    442000    434000    451000
473000    454000    475000    491000    489000
491000    487000    483000    514000    514000
517000    464000    552000    558000    551000
539000    556000    495000    545000    489000
564000    583000    556000    507000    544000
528000    556000    539000    557000    574000
578000    585000    597000    588000    576000
584000    585000    586000    588000    611000
614000    591000    582000    600000    572000
567000    536000    605000    606000    637000
628000    647000    651000    641000    680000
671000    695000    651000    656000    623000
637000    589000    599000    577000    612000
557000    533000    516000    489000    534000
510000    479000    479000    503000    501000
486000    487000    481000    495000    475000
470000    481000    491000    496000    515000
488000    490000    494000    464000    460000
454000    459000    442000    434000    442000
422000    412000    396000    395000    415000
415000    457000    445000    426000    411000
403000    405000    416000    413000    406000
394000    394000    404000    395000    390000
387000    398000    365000    368000    362000
377000    372000    356000    351000    333000
364000    342000    338000    334000    343000
347000    346000    349000    346000    341000
381000    357000    364000    375000    365000
368000    354000    354000    355000    369000
361000    362000    360000    366000    360000
357000    359000    382000    380000    401000
395000    385000    402000    393000    395000
402000    403000    410000    439000    425000
423000    393000    383000    429000    401000
383000    386000    379000    379000    369000
387000    359000    368000    386000    401000
390000    390000    374000    385000    386000
373000    386000    405000    411000    391000
386000    390000    394000    391000    396000
393000    403000    390000    386000    390000
395000    386000    370000    362000    407000
402000    399000    405000    409000    426000
408000    401000    399000    405000    400000
400000    418000    398000    397000    397000
382000    393000    399000    382000    370000
390000    362000    397000    364000    344000
364000    366000    358000    390000    375000
366000    382000    387000    396000    381000
388000    383000    391000    392000    395000
384000    386000    373000    375000    369000
367000    371000    371000    361000    354000
362000    416000    416000    407000    397000
401000    400000    394000    399000    389000
391000    387000    385000    370000    364000
349000    368000    369000    366000    363000
375000    350000    345000    323000    348000
341000    346000    370000    368000    338000
341000    348000    337000    335000    335000
326000    330000    338000    349000    328000
330000    315000    341000    343000    326000
328000    316000    319000    326000    326000
317000    310000    324000    348000    327000
319000    312000    322000    316000    297000
309000    317000    301000    308000    301000
301000    289000    297000    307000    317000
306000    319000    317000    323000    316000
315000    325000    361000    335000    342000
318000    311000    327000    319000    307000
304000    307000    304000    309000    313000
314000    312000    313000    309000    314000
319000    313000    310000    305000    311000
307000    305000    303000    315000    354000
331000    316000    312000    316000    315000
306000    305000    306000    301000    292000
292000    293000    286000    294000    285000
284000    294000    299000    298000    285000
293000    286000    304000    299000    283000
282000    295000    288000    322000    305000
300000    325000    325000    319000    319000
323000    314000    307000    304000    311000
320000    332000    321000    325000    325000
332000    337000    338000    349000    341000
349000    332000    337000    338000    341000
327000    332000    329000    336000    334000
334000    347000    407000    345000    347000
354000    333000    336000    336000    342000
344000    338000    355000    381000    358000
355000    369000    375000    345000    368000
367000    348000    350000    351000    349000
349000    331000    346000    367000    357000
360000    363000    354000    355000    353000
359000    368000    359000    359000    362000
364000    362000    367000    370000    369000
369000    381000    393000    394000    392000
390000    395000    389000    404000    404000
422000    435000    440000    430000    448000
447000    462000    451000    449000    447000
474000    454000    415000    437000    445000
462000    483000    480000    474000    499000
488000    499000    498000    509000    499000
452000    477000    478000    462000    451000
446000    448000    443000    432000    441000
429000    423000    418000    422000    420000
408000    423000    438000    437000    433000
425000    425000    424000    418000    419000
437000    424000    425000    419000    423000
447000    453000    439000    444000    444000
475000    475000    436000    441000    432000
440000    443000    441000    440000    445000
446000    436000    444000    421000    437000
440000    420000    412000    413000    424000
424000    431000    417000    414000    414000
411000    416000    420000    419000    420000
407000    408000    392000    564000    423000
406000    401000    398000    408000    416000
416000    427000    409000    398000    374000
385000    367000    365000    374000    377000
357000    341000    350000    359000    334000
313000    341000    354000    352000    341000
340000    319000    321000    351000    362000
354000    346000    338000    366000    365000
353000    351000    350000    343000    339000
345000    342000    349000    343000    343000
345000    340000    334000    314000    335000
415000    356000    346000    339000    342000
337000    334000    333000    346000    343000
333000    355000    359000    354000    348000
350000    341000    336000    337000    337000
334000    331000    290000    341000    343000
355000    351000    406000    361000    354000
352000    327000    348000    341000    332000
322000    342000    349000    354000    331000
344000    371000    360000    357000    348000
345000    338000    336000    341000    334000
341000    359000    345000    332000    338000
335000    331000    341000    339000    331000
326000    325000    330000    341000    335000
330000    331000    328000    329000    326000
329000    324000    329000    330000    314000
319000    338000    347000    325000    324000
324000    348000    343000    336000    339000
347000    343000    332000    335000    347000
355000    349000    365000    364000    366000
377000    374000    362000    367000    378000
358000    355000    372000    389000    390000
351000    351000    353000    362000    359000
355000    371000    376000    353000    355000
374000    369000    366000    377000    380000
370000    379000    379000    373000    346000
373000    374000    359000    361000    333000
415000    387000    374000    387000    383000
365000    368000    361000    384000    426000
393000    369000    357000    368000    343000
338000    352000    345000    343000    340000
351000    342000    341000    337000    342000
347000    332000    327000    326000    331000
336000    337000    329000    333000    338000
352000    348000    335000    334000    335000
352000    334000    327000    342000    347000
332000    355000    352000    350000    357000
347000    324000    345000    340000    333000
315000    313000    322000    321000    317000
319000    315000    325000    325000    330000
316000    337000    342000    318000    322000
316000    321000    329000    335000    316000
322000    346000    328000    301000    306000
320000    329000    343000    327000    332000
313000    314000    317000    317000    311000
305000    318000    306000    313000    308000
325000    309000    318000    317000    323000
310000    303000    312000    331000    341000
307000    315000    311000    321000    327000
317000    308000    319000    321000    312000
312000    304000    317000    311000    304000
306000    315000    309000    322000    306000
321000    349000    376000    362000    320000
315000    335000    327000    316000    308000
302000    310000    313000    304000    305000
294000    302000    316000    318000    309000
308000    316000    334000    304000    310000
326000    305000    297000    336000    331000
345000    339000    311000    305000    291000
312000    302000    301000    300000    308000
305000    298000    310000    319000    314000
291000    296000    310000    301000    298000
303000    303000    290000    292000    291000
287000    288000    309000    306000    300000
295000    292000    286000    290000    290000
281000    281000    306000    309000    291000
287000    280000    285000    282000    281000
276000    288000    287000    272000    287000
268000    286000    298000    289000    284000
285000    312000    300000    283000    280000
286000    270000    271000    272000    266000
268000    259000    274000    291000    293000
276000    280000    280000    290000    284000
294000    296000    281000    293000    303000
300000    298000    306000    315000    318000
312000    301000    309000    311000    288000
292000    309000    299000    295000    301000
331000    318000    332000    356000    338000
321000    354000    364000    353000    337000
318000    343000    362000    376000    365000
358000    386000    384000    393000    393000
378000    388000    398000    383000    400000
406000    381000    390000    402000    405000
406000    411000    394000    381000    394000
401000    405000    398000    388000    401000
394000    402000    395000    402000    408000
395000    453000    517000    476000    482000
482000    483000    440000    428000    431000
491000    465000    393000    389000    416000
421000    397000    418000    405000    414000
404000    397000    397000    398000    392000
399000    392000    415000    479000    445000
442000    416000    414000    409000    413000
411000    403000    378000    388000    396000
388000    386000    391000    384000    379000
390000    388000    389000    399000    398000
394000    416000    412000    401000    409000
404000    405000    412000    409000    405000
400000    389000    390000    377000    425000
429000    394000    409000    393000    378000
402000    407000    413000    390000    420000
421000    436000    424000    430000    411000
436000    417000    434000    450000    444000
428000    417000    425000    419000    431000
429000    421000    408000    429000    433000
412000    403000    398000    401000    404000
398000    391000    407000    422000    394000
379000    387000    386000    376000    387000
379000    363000    371000    370000    354000
357000    367000    363000    354000    349000
356000    354000    362000    353000    376000
380000    356000    359000    348000    344000
338000    346000    340000    335000    355000
364000    339000    324000    329000    349000
342000    337000    355000    339000    354000
348000    326000    345000    355000    348000
341000    336000    332000    343000    352000
326000    331000    341000    351000    335000
338000    327000    338000    332000    330000
337000    313000    335000    343000    316000
322000    320000    356000    369000    332000
329000    331000    307000    308000    318000
314000    333000    324000    329000    342000
335000    323000    307000    317000    334000
327000    321000    320000    340000    338000
333000    321000    311000    327000    338000
323000    318000    316000    311000    319000
315000    318000    326000    422000    424000
359000    384000    383000    348000    324000
322000    325000    309000    324000    311000
321000    327000    312000    320000    302000
326000    285000    290000    282000    289000
298000    283000    293000    302000    307000
303000    295000    291000    299000    299000
308000    321000    347000    335000    319000
330000    307000    298000    308000    309000
316000    343000    318000    306000    311000
318000    310000    315000    314000    315000
314000    324000    319000    309000    316000
305000    313000    328000    319000    311000
326000    349000    327000    311000    318000
323000    341000    330000    296000    335000
308000    310000    338000    321000    322000
320000    308000    309000    303000    307000
332000    327000    321000    301000    300000
297000    310000    310000    313000    313000
320000    313000    317000    321000    317000
310000    305000    314000    316000    321000
329000    314000    321000    313000    302000
317000    316000    335000    334000    328000
327000    333000    332000    352000    344000
332000    350000    355000    360000    346000
322000    321000    366000    350000    344000
339000    354000    345000    348000    369000
368000    387000    354000    365000    349000
370000    370000    366000    367000    369000
362000    382000    378000    381000    392000
371000    385000    402000    434000    448000
430000    424000    421000    442000    441000
449000    483000    483000    482000    461000
478000    480000    490000    512000    536000
532000    529000    570000    566000    587000
533000    504000    551000    591000    588000
632000    637000    635000    655000    651000
659000    650000    662000    670000    655000
600000    641000    617000    600000    627000
621000    607000    609000    594000    595000
609000    594000    575000    546000    560000
587000    555000    553000    562000    559000
564000    553000    537000    532000    548000
535000    514000    534000    530000    523000
513000    507000    481000    472000    498000
503000    481000    469000    461000    473000
513000    473000    498000    464000    489000
501000    485000    468000    474000    469000
461000    482000    473000    470000    447000
448000    451000    476000    462000    457000
458000    466000    454000    464000    456000
440000    458000    464000    473000    481000
485000    463000    466000    449000    438000
455000    452000    449000    462000    446000
433000    455000    436000    435000    408000
431000    431000    434000    429000    406000
420000    437000    429000    448000    426000
404000    428000    399000    389000    413000
401000    407000    401000    401000    410000
409000    419000    466000    429000    416000
423000    418000    423000    411000    419000
421000    421000    411000    413000    408000
400000    403000    408000    413000    407000
410000    418000    414000    397000    404000
410000    395000    401000    400000    392000
386000    383000    395000    388000    377000
373000    387000    383000    393000    374000
384000    378000    370000    363000    364000
372000    373000    364000    368000    363000
368000    378000    387000    381000    371000
366000    373000    371000    382000    378000
382000    386000    381000    374000    363000
382000    363000    366000    368000    367000
374000    375000    368000    381000    379000
367000    368000    352000    384000    372000
367000    363000    451000    400000    390000
370000    354000    366000    366000    372000
373000    350000    343000    374000    361000
348000    366000    348000    340000    334000
341000    357000    388000    348000    355000
342000    327000    328000    363000    344000
357000    346000    336000    355000    348000
344000    358000    336000    345000    328000
335000    322000    337000    333000    323000
294000    311000    307000    308000    373000
362000    350000    346000    341000    344000
326000
;

data rec;
input recession @@;
date = intnx('day', '01mar1960'd, _n_-1);
format date date.;
datalines;
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1     1      1      1
  1     1     1     1     1     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
  0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0      0      0
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;
data econ;
   merge rec weekly monthly quarterly;
   by date;
run;

 ods output NamedParameterEstimates = named;
 proc ssm data=econ opt(tech=activeset);
   id date interval=day;
   parms beta2-beta6;
   parms lv1-lv8;
   avar = exp(lv7);
   wnv1 = exp(lv1);  wnv2 = exp(lv2);
   wnv3 = exp(lv3);  wnv4 = exp(lv4);
   wnv5 = exp(lv5);  wnv6 = exp(lv6);
   tvar = exp(lv8);
   zero = 0;

    /* --- start of model spec ----*/
   state latent(2) t(g)=(1 1 0 1) cov(d)=(zero avar);
   comp c1 = latent[1];
   comp c2 = (beta2)*latent[1];
   comp c3 = (beta3)*latent[1];
   comp c4 = (beta4)*latent[1];
   comp c5 = (beta5)*latent[1];
   comp c6 = (beta6)*latent[1];

   irregular w1 variance=wnv1;
   int1 = 1;
   model ld_payemp = int1 c1 w1;

   irregular w2 variance=wnv2;
   int2 = 1;
   model ld_pinc = int2 c2 w2;

   irregular w3 variance=wnv3;
   int3 = 1;
   model ld_mnfctr = int3 c3 w3;

   irregular w4 variance=wnv4;
   int4 = 1;
   model ld_indpro = int4 c4 w4;

   irregular w5 variance=wnv5;
   int5 = 1;
   model ld_gdp = int5 c5 w5;

   irregular w6 variance=wnv6 ;
   trend t_icsa(ll) levelvar=0 slopevar=tvar;
   model l_icsa = c6 t_icsa w6;
   /* ---model spec done----*/

   eval icsaPattern = c6 + t_icsa;
   /*--index is a scaled version of the common factor--*/
   eval Index = 1000*c1;
   comp slope = latent[2];
   eval IndexSlope = 1000*slope;
   /*--just so recession is output to the output data set--*/
   rec = recession;
   output out=forecast1 press pdv;
  run;

 proc sgplot data=forecast1;
   title "Economic Activity Index";
   title2 "(NBER Recessionary Periods Are Shaded)";
   block x=date block=recession /
      filltype=alternate fillattrs=(color=white transparency=0.2);
   series x=date y=smoothed_index;
   refline 0 / lineattrs=(pattern=dash);
run;

 proc sgplot data=forecast1;
   title "Slope of the Economic Activity Index";
   title2 "(NBER Recessionary Periods Are Shaded)";
   block x=date block=recession /
      filltype=alternate fillattrs=(color=white transparency=0.2);
   series x=date y=smoothed_indexSlope;
   refline 0 / lineattrs=(pattern=dash);
run;

title "The Estimated Loadings";
 proc print data=named(obs=5) noobs;
   var parameter estimate stdErr;
run;