A man with one watch always knows what time it is...but a man with two watches is never sure. Contrary to this adage, load forecasters at electric utilities would gladly wear an armful of watches. With only one model to choose from, it is certain that some forecasts will be wrong. But with multiple models, forecasters can have confidence about periods when the forecasts agree and can focus their attention on periods when the predictions diverge. Having a second opinion is preferred, and that's one of the six classic rules for forecasters as per Dr. Tao Hong of the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. Dr. Hong is the premiere thought leader and practitioner in the field of energy forecasting. This presentation discusses Dr. Hong's six rules, how they relate to the increasingly complex problem of forecasting electricity consumption, and the role that predictive analytics plays.

UNIX and Linux SAS^® administrators, have you ever been greeted by one of these statements as you walk into the office before you have gotten your first cup of coffee? Power outage! SAS servers are down. I cannot access my reports. Have you frantically tried to restart the SAS servers to avoid loss of productivity and missed one of the steps in the process, causing further delays while other work continues to pile up? If you have had this experience, you understand the benefit to be gained from a utility that automates the management of these multi-tiered deployments. Until recently, there was no method for automatically starting and stopping multi-tiered services in an orchestrated fashion. Instead, you had to use time-consuming manual procedures to manage SAS services. These procedures were also prone to human error, which could result in corrupted services and additional time lost, debugging and resolving issues injected by this process. To address this challenge, SAS Technical Support created the SAS Local Services Management (SAS_lsm) utility, which provides automated, orderly management of your SAS^® multi-tiered deployments. The intent of this paper is to demonstrate the deployment and usage of the SAS_lsm utility. Now, go grab a coffee, and let's see how SAS_lsm can make life less chaotic.

The traditional view is that a utility's long-term forecast must have a standard against which it is judged. Weather normalization is one of the industry-standard practices that utilities use to assess the efficacy of a forecasting solution. While recent advances in probabilistic load forecasting techniques are proving to be a methodology that brings many benefits to a forecast, many utilities still require the benchmarking process to determine the accuracy of their long-term forecasts. Due to climatological volatility and the potentially large annual variances in temperature, humidity, and other relevant weather variables, most utilities create normalized weather profiles through various processes in order to estimate what is traditionally called a weather normalized load profile. However, new research shows that due to the nonlinear response of electric demand to weather variations, a simple normal weather profile in many cases might not equate to a normal load. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic approach to deriving normalized load profiles and monthly peak and energy in through a process we label load normalization against the effects of weather . We compare it with the traditional weather normalization process to quantify the costs and benefits of using such a process. The proposed method has been successfully deployed at utilities for their long-term operation and planning purposes, and risk management.