The telecommunications industry is the fastest changing business ecosystem in this century. Therefore, handset campaigning to increase loyalty is the top issue for telco companies. However, these handset campaigns have great fraud and payment risks if the companies do not have the ability to classify and assess customers properly according to their risk propensity. For many years, telco companies managed the risk with business rules such as customer tenure until the launch of analytics solutions into the market. But few business rules restrict telco companies in the sales of handsets to new customers. On the other hand, with increasing competition pressure in telco companies, it is necessary to use external credit data to sell handsets to new customers. Credit bureau data was a good opportunity to measure and understand the behaviors of the applicants. But using external data required system integration and real-time decision systems. For those reasons, we need a solution that enables us to predict risky customers and then integrate risk scores and all information into one real-time decision engine for optimized handset application vetting. After an assessment period, SAS^® Analytics platform and RTDM were chosen as the most suitable solution because they provide a flexible user friendly interface, high integration, and fast deployment capability. In this project, we build a process that includes three main stages to transform the data into knowledge. These stages are data collection, predictive modelling, and deployment and decision optimization. a) Data Collection: We designed a specific daily updated data mart that connects internal payment behavior, demographics, and customer experience data with external credit bureau data. In this way, we can turn data into meaningful knowledge for better understanding of customer behavior. b) Predictive Modelling: For using the company potential, it is critically important to use an analytics approach that is based on state-of-the-art tec hnologies. We built nine models to predict customer propensity to pay. As a result of better classification of customers, we obtain satisfied results in designing collection scenarios and decision model in handset application vetting. c) Deployment and Decision Optimization: Knowledge is not enough to reach success in business. It should be turned into optimized decision and deployed real time. For this reason, we have been using SAS^® Predictive Analytics Tools and SAS^® Real-Time Decision Manager to primarily turn data into knowledge and turn knowledge into strategy and execution. With this system, we are now able to assess customers properly and to sell handset even to our brand-new customers as part of the application vetting process. As a result of this, while we are decreasing nonpayment risk, we generated extra revenue that is coming from brand-new contracted customers. In three months, 13% of all handset sales was concluded via RTDM. Another benefit of the RTDM is a 30% cost saving in external data inquiries. Thanks to the RTDM, Avea has become the first telecom operator that uses bureau data in Turkish Telco industry.

Banks can create a competitive advantage in their business by using business intelligence (BI) and by building models. In the credit domain, the best practice is to build risk-sensitive models (Probability of Default, Exposure at Default, Loss-given Default, Unexpected Loss, Concentration Risk, and so on) and implement them in decision-making, credit granting, and credit risk management. There are models and tools on the next level built on these models and that are used to help in achieving business targets, risk-sensitive pricing, capital planning, optimizing of ROE/RAROC, managing the credit portfolio, setting the level of provisions, and so on. It works remarkably well as long as the models work. However, over time, models deteriorate and their predictive power can drop dramatically. Since the global financial crisis in 2008, we have faced a tsunami of regulation and accelerated frequency of changes in the business environment, which cause models to deteriorate faster than ever before. As a result, heavy reliance on models in decision-making (some decisions are automated following the model's results--without human intervention) might result in a huge error that can have dramatic consequences for the bank's performance. In my presentation, I share our experience in reducing model risk and establishing corporate governance of models with the following SAS^® tools: model monitoring, SAS^® Model Manager, dashboards, and SAS^® Visual Analytics.

Risk managers and traders know that some knowledge loses its value quickly. Unfortunately, due to the computationally intensive nature of risk, most risk managers use stale data. Knowing your positions and risk intraday can provide immense value. Imagine knowing the portfolio risk impact of a trade before you execute. This paper shows you a path to doing real-time risk analysis leveraging capabilities from SAS^® Event Stream Processing Engine and SAS^® High-Performance Risk. Event stream processing (ESP) offers the ability to process large amounts of data with high throughput and low latency, including streaming real-time trade data from front-office systems into a centralized risk engine. SAS High-Performance Risk enables robust, complex portfolio valuations and risk calculations quickly and accurately. In this paper, we present techniques and demonstrate concepts that enable you to more efficiently use these capabilities together. We also show techniques for analyzing SAS High-Performance data with SAS^® Visual Analytics.

As a consequence of the financial crisis, banks are required to stress test their balance sheet and earnings based on prescribed macroeconomic scenarios. In the US, this exercise is known as the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) or Dodd-Frank Act Stress Testing (DFAST). In order to assess capital adequacy under these stress scenarios, banks need a unified view of their projected balance sheet, incomes, and losses. In addition, the bar for these regulatory stress tests is very high regarding governance and overall infrastructure. Regulators and auditors want to ensure that the granularity and quality of data, model methodology, and assumptions reflect the complexity of the banks. This calls for close internal collaboration and information sharing across business lines, risk management, and finance. Currently, this process is managed in an ad hoc, manual fashion. Results are aggregated from various lines of business using spreadsheets and Microsoft SharePoint. Although the spreadsheet option provides flexibility, it brings ambiguity into the process and makes the process error prone and inefficient. This paper introduces a new SAS^® stress testing solution that can help banks define, orchestrate and streamline the stress-testing process for easier traceability, auditability, and reproducibility. The integrated platform provides greater control, efficiency, and transparency to the CCAR process. This will enable banks to focus on more value-added analysis such as scenario exploration, sensitivity analysis, capital planning and management, and model dependencies. Lastly, the solution was designed to leverage existing in-house platforms that banks might already have in place.

In 2014, for the first time, mid-market banks (consisting of banks and bank holding companies with $10-$50 billion in consolidated assets) were required to submit Capital Stress Tests to the federal regulators under the Dodd-Frank Act Stress Testing (DFAST). This is a process large banks have been going through since 2011. However, mid-market banks are not positioned to commit as many resources to their annual stress tests as their largest peers. Limited human and technical resources, incomplete or non-existent detailed historical data, lack of enterprise-wide cross-functional analytics teams, and limited exposure to rigorous model validations are all challenges mid-market banks face. While there are fewer deliverables required from the DFAST banks, the scrutiny the regulators are placing on the analytical modes is just as high as their expectations for Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) banks. This session discusses the differences in how DFAST and CCAR banks execute their stress tests, the challenges facing DFAST banks, and potential ways DFAST banks can leverage the analytics behind this exercise.

Managing and organizing external files and directories play an important part in our data analysis and business analytics work. A good file management system can streamline project management and file organizations and significantly improve work efficiency . Therefore, under many circumstances, it is necessary to automate and standardize the file management processes through SAS^® programming. Compared with managing SAS files via PROC DATASETS, managing external files is a much more challenging task, which requires advanced programming skills. This paper presents and discusses various methods and approaches to managing external files with SAS programming. The illustrated methods and skills can have important applications in a wide variety of analytic work fields.