In Scotia - Colpatria Bank, the retail segment is very important. The quantity of lending applications makes it necessary to use statistical models and analytic tools in order to do an initial selection of good customers, who our credit analyst will study in depth to finally approve or deny a credit application. The construction of target vintages using the Cox model will generate past-due alerts in a shorter time, so the mitigation measures can be applied one or two months earlier than currently. This can reduce the losses by 100 bps in the new vintages. This paper makes the estimation of a proportional hazard model of Cox and compares the results with a logit model for a specific product of the bank. Additionally, we will estimate the objective vintage for the product.

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The importance of econometrics in the analytics toolkit is increasing every day. Econometric modeling helps uncover structural relationships in observational data. This paper highlights the many recent changes to the SAS/ETS^® portfolio that increase your power to explain the past and predict the future. Examples show how you can use Bayesian regression tools for price elasticity modeling, use state space models to gain insight from inconsistent time series, use panel data methods to help control for unobserved confounding effects, and much more.

Behind an e-commerce site selling many thousands of live events, with inventory from thousands of ticket suppliers who can and do change prices constantly, and all the historical data on prices for this and similar events, layer in customer bidding behavior and you have a big data opportunity on your hands. I will talk about the evolution of pricing at ScoreBig in this framework and the models we've developed to set our reserve pricing. These models and the underlying data are also used by our inventory partners to continue to refine their pricing. I will also highlight how having a name your own price framework helps with the development of pricing models.

Over the years, the SAS^® Business Intelligence platform has proved its importance in this big data world with its suite of applications that enable us to efficiently process, analyze, and transform huge amounts of business data. Within the data warehouse universe, 'batch execution' sits in the heart of SAS Data Integration technologies. On a day-to-day basis, batches run, and the current status of the batch is generally sent out to the team or to the client as a 'static' e-mail or as a report. From experience, we know that they don't provide much insight into the real 'bits and bytes' of a batch run. Imagine if the status of the running batch is automatically captured in one central repository and is presented on a beautiful web browser on your computer or on your iPad. All this can be achieved without asking anybody to send reports and with all 'post-batch' queries being answered automatically with a click. This paper aims to answer the same with a framework that is designed specifically to automate the reporting aspects of SAS batches and, yes, it is all about collecting statistics of the batch, and we call it - 'BatchStats.'

What do going to the South Pole at the beginning of the 20th century, winning the 1980 gold medal in Olympic hockey, and delivering a successful project have in common? The answer: Good teams succeed when groups of highly talented individuals often do not. So, what is your Everest and how do you gather the right group to successfully scale it? Success often hinges on not just building a team, but on assembling the right team. Join Scott Sanders, a business and IT veteran who has effectively built, managed, and been part of successful teams throughout his 27-year career. Hear some of his best practices for how to put together a good team and keep them focused, engaged, and motivated to deliver a project.

The impact of price on brand sales is not always linear or independent of other brand prices. We demonstrate, using sales information and SAS^® Enterprise Miner, how to uncover relative price bands where prices might be increased without losing market share or decreased slightly to gain share.

Many organizations need to forecast large numbers of time series that are discretely valued. These series, called count series, fall approximately between continuously valued time series, for which there are many forecasting techniques (ARIMA, UCM, ESM, and others), and intermittent time series, for which there are a few forecasting techniques (Croston's method and others). This paper proposes a technique for large-scale automatic count series forecasting and uses SAS^® Forecast Server and SAS/ETS^® software to demonstrate this technique.

Because of the variety of card holders' behavior patterns and income sources, each consumer account can change to different states. Each consumer account can change to states such as non-active, transactor, revolver, delinquent, and defaulted, and each account requires an individual model for generated income prediction. The estimation of the transition probability between statuses at the account level helps to avoid the lack of memory in the MDP approach. The key question is which approach gives more accurate results: multinomial logistic regression or multistage decision tree with binary logistic regressions. This paper investigates the approaches to credit cards' profitability estimation at the account level based on multistates conditional probability by using the SAS/STAT procedure PROC LOGISTIC. Both models show moderate, but not strong, predictive power. Prediction accuracy for decision tree is dependent on the order of stages for conditional binary logistic regression. Current development is concentrated on discrete choice models as nested logit with PROC MDC.

Learn how leading retailers are developing key findings in digital data to be leveraged across marketing, merchandising, and IT.

As pollution and population continue to increase, new concepts of eco-friendly commuting evolve. One of the emerging concepts is the bicycle sharing system. It is a bike rental service on a short-term basis at a moderate price. It provides people the flexibility to rent a bike from one location and return it to another location. This business is quickly gaining popularity all over the globe. In May 2011, there were only 375 bike rental schemes consisting of nearly 236,000 bikes. However, this number jumped to 535 bike sharing programs with approximately 517,000 bikes in just a couple of years. It is expected that this trend will continue to grow at a similar pace in the future. Most of the businesses involved in this system of bike rental are faced with the challenge of balancing supply and inconsistent demand. The number of bikes needed on a particular day can vary on several factors such as season, time, temperature, wind speed, humidity, holiday and day of the week. In this paper, we have tried to solve this problem using SAS^® Forecast Studio. Incorporating the effects of all the above factors and analyzing the demand trends of the last two years, we have been able to precisely forecast the number of bikes needed on any day in the future. Also, we are able to do the scenario analysis to observe the effect of particular variables on the demand.

Your electricity usage patterns reveal a lot about your family and routines. Information collected from electrical smart meters can be mined to identify patterns of behavior that can in turn be used to help change customer behavior for the purpose of altering system load profiles. Demand Response (DR) programs represent an effective way to cope with rising energy needs and increasing electricity costs. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) defines demand response as changes in electric usage by end-use customers from their normal consumption patterns in response to changes in the price of electricity over time, or to incentive payments designed to lower electricity use at times of high wholesale market prices or when system reliability of jeopardized. In order to effectively motivate customers to voluntarily change their consumptions patterns, it is important to identify customers whose load profiles are similar so that targeted incentives can be directed toward these customers. Hence, it is critical to use tools that can accurately cluster similar time series patterns while providing a means to profile these clusters. In order to solve this problem, though, hardware and software that is capable of storing, extracting, transforming, loading and analyzing large amounts of data must first be in place. Utilities receive customer data from smart meters, which track and store customer energy usage. The data collected is sent to the energy companies every fifteen minutes or hourly. With millions of meters deployed, this quantity of information creates a data deluge for utilities, because each customer generates about three thousand data points monthly, and more than thirty-six billion reads are collected annually for a million customers. The data scientist is the hunter, and DR candidate patterns are the prey in this cat-and-mouse game of finding customers willing to curtail electrical usage for a program benefit. The data scientist must connect large siloed data sources, external data , and even unstructured data to detect common customer electrical usage patterns, build dependency models, and score them against their customer population. Taking advantage of Hadoop's ability to store and process data on commodity hardware with distributed parallel processing is a game changer. With Hadoop, no data set is too large, and SAS^® Visual Statistics leverages machine learning, artificial intelligence, and clustering techniques to build descriptive and predictive models. All data can be usable from disparate systems, including structured, unstructured, and log files. The data scientist can use Hadoop to ingest all available data at rest, and analyze customer usage patterns, system electrical flow data, and external data such as weather. This paper will use Cloudera Hadoop with Apache Hive queries for analysis on platforms such as SAS^® Visual Analytics and SAS Visual Statistics. The paper will showcase optionality within Hadoop for querying large data sets with open-source tools and importing these data into SAS^® for robust customer analytics, clustering customers by usage profiles, propensity to respond to a demand response event, and an electrical system analysis for Demand Response events.

In data mining modelling, data preparation is the most crucial, most difficult, and longest part of the mining process. A lot of steps are involved. Consider the simple distribution analysis of the variables, the diagnosis and reduction of the influence of variables' multicollinearity, the imputation of missing values, and the construction of categories in variables. In this presentation, we use data mining models in different areas like marketing, insurance, retail and credit risk. We show how to implement data preparation through SAS^® Enterprise Miner™, using different approaches. We use simple code routines and complex processes involving statistical insights, cluster variables, transform variables, graphical analysis, decision trees, and more.

There are various economic factors that affect retail sales. One important factor that is expected to correlate is overall customer sentiment toward a brand. In this paper, we analyze how location-specific customer sentiment could vary and correlate with sales at retail stores. In our attempt to find any dependency, we have used location-specific Twitter feeds related to a national-brand chain retail store. We opinion-mine their overall sentiment using SAS^® Sentiment Analysis Studio. We estimate correlation between the opinion index and retail sales within the studied geographic areas. Later in the analysis, using ArcGIS Online from Esri, we estimate whether other location-specific variables that could potentially correlate with customer sentiment toward the brand are significantly important to predict a brand's retail sales.

Customer Long-Term Value (LTV) is a concept that is readily explained at a high level to marketing management of a company, but its analytic development is complex. This complexity involves the need to forecast customer behavior well into the future. This behavior includes the timing, frequency, and profitability of a customer's future purchases of products and services. This paper describes a method for computing LTV. First, a multinomial logistic regression provides probabilities for time-of-first-purchase, time-of-second-purchase, and so on, for each customer. Then the profits for the first purchase, second purchase, and so on, are forecast but only after adjustment for non-purchaser selection bias. Finally, these component models are combined in the LTV formula.

Retailers proactively seek a data-driven approach to provide customized product recommendations to guarantee sales increase and customer loyalty. Product affinity models have been recognized as one of the vital tools for this purpose. The algorithm assigns a customer to a product affinity group when the likelihood of purchasing is the highest and the likelihood meets the minimum and absolute requirement. However, in practice, valuable customers, up to 30% of the total universe, who buy across multiple product categories with two or more balanced product affinity likelihoods, are undefined and unable to be effectively product recommended. This paper presents multiple product affinity models that are developed using SAS^® macro language to address the problem. In this paper, we demonstrate how the innovative assignment algorithm successfully assigns the undefined customers to appropriate multiple product affinity groups using nationwide retailer transactional data. In addition, the result shows that potential customers establish loyalty through migration from a single to multiple product affinity groups. This comprehensive and insightful business solution will be shared in this paper. Also, this paper provides a clustering algorithm and nonparametric tree model for model building. The customer assignment for using SAS macro code is provided in an appendix.

Faced with diminishing forecast returns from the forecast engine within the existing replenishment application, Tractor Supply Company (TSC) engaged SAS^® Institute to deliver a fully integrated forecasting solution that promised a significant improvement of chain-wide forecast accuracy. The end-to-end forecast implementation including problems faced, solutions delivered, and results realized will be explored.

Reporting Best Practices

Retailers, amongst nearly every other consumer business are under more pressure and competition than ever before. Today 's consumer is more connected, informed and empowered and the pace of innovation is rapidly changing the way consumers shop. Retailers are expected to sift through and implement digital technology, make sense of their Big Data with analytics, change processes and cut costs all at the same time. Today 's session, SRetail 2015 the landscape, trends, and technology will cover major issues retailers are facing today as well as both business and technology trends that will shape their future.

The goal of this presentation is to provide user group an update on retail solution releases in past one year and the roadmap moving forward.

The two primary objectives of multi-tiered causal analysis (MTCA) are to support and evaluate business strategies based on the effectiveness of marketing actions in both a competitive and holistic environment. By tying the performance of a brand, product, or SKU at retail to internal replenishment shipments at a point in time, the outcome of making a change to the marketing mix (demand) can be simulated and evaluated to determine the full impact on supply (shipments). The key benefit of MTCA is that it captures the entire supply chain by focusing on marketing strategies to shape future demand and to link them, using a holistic framework, to shipments (supply). These relationships are what truly define the marketplace and all marketing elements within the supply chain.

The era of mass marketing is over. Welcome to the new age of relevant marketing where whispering matters far more than shouting.' At ZapFi, using the combination of sponsored free Wi-Fi and real-time consumer analytics,' we help businesses to better understand who their customers are. This gives businesses the opportunity to send highly relevant marketing messages based on the profile and the location of the customer. It also leads to new ways to build deeper and more intimate, one-on-one relationships between the business and the customer. During this presentation, ZapFi will use a few real-world examples to demonstrate that the future of mobile marketing is much more about data and far less about advertising.

In today's omni-channel world, consumers expect retailers to deliver the product they want, where they want it, when they want it, at a price they accept. A major challenge many retailers face in delighting their customers is successfully predicting consumer demand. Business decisions across the enterprise are affected by these demand estimates. Forecasts used to inform high-level strategic planning, merchandising decisions (planning assortments, buying products, pricing, and allocating and replenishing inventory) and operational execution (labor planning) are similar in many respects. However, each business process requires careful consideration of specific input data, modeling strategies, output requirements, and success metrics. In this session, learn how leading retailers are increasing sales and profitability by operationalizing forecasts that improve decisions across their enterprise.

Marketers often face a cross-channel challenge in making sense of the behavior of web visitors who spend considerable time researching an item online, even putting the item in a wish list or checkout basket, but failing to follow up with an actual purchase online, instead opting to purchase the item in the store. This research shows the use of SAS^® Visual Analytics to address this challenge. This research uses a large data set of simulated web transactional data, combines it with common IDs to attach the data to in-store retail data, and studies it in SAS Visual Analytics. In this presentation, we go over tips and tricks for using SAS Visual Analytics on a non-distributed server. The loaded data set is analyzed step by step to show how to draw correlations in the web browsing behavior of customers and how to link the data to their subsequent in-store behavior. It shows how we can draw inferences between web visits and in-store visits by department. You'll change your marketing strategy as a result of the research.

The measurement of factors influencing consumer purchasing decisions is of interest to all manufacturers of goods, retailers selling these goods, and consumers buying these goods. In the past decade, conjoint analysis has become one of the commonly used statistical techniques for analyzing the decisions or trade-offs consumers make when they purchase products. Although recent years have seen increased use of conjoint analysis and conjoint software, there is limited work that has spelled out a systematic procedure on how to do a conjoint analysis or how to use conjoint software. This paper reviews basic conjoint analysis concepts, describes the mathematical and statistical framework on which conjoint analysis is built, and introduces the TRANSREG and PHREG procedures, their syntaxes, and the output they generate using simplified real-life data examples. This paper concludes by highlighting some of the substantives issues related to the application of conjoint analysis in a business environment and the available auto call macros in SAS/STAT^®, SAS/IML^®, and SAS/QC^® software that can handle more complex conjoint designs and analyses. The paper will benefit the basic SAS user, and statisticians and research analysts in every industry, especially those in marketing and advertisement.

Credit card usage modelling is a relatively innovative task of client predictive analytics compared to risk modelling such as credit scoring. The credit limit utilization rate is a problem with limited outcome values and highly dependent on customer behavior. Proportion prediction techniques are widely used for Loss Given Default estimation in credit risk modelling (Belotti and Crook, 2009; Arsova et al, 2011; Van Berkel and Siddiqi, 2012; Yao et al, 2014). This paper investigates some regression models for utilization rate with outcome limits applied and provides a comparative analysis of the predictive accuracy of the methods. Regression models are performed in SAS/STAT^® using PROC REG, PROC LOGISTIC, PROC NLMIXED, PROC GLIMMIX, and SAS^® macros for model evaluation. The conclusion recommends credit limit utilization rate prediction techniques obtained from the empirical analysis.

Understanding your customer will allow you to create, rollout, or implement meaningful, value-added processes and tools to assist in increasing revenue, simplify or standardize processes, and increase productivity. This session will guide you on how to engage your customer, observe and discern their needs, then ultimately deliver and transition your product.

Working with multiple data sources in SAS^® was not a straight forward thing until PROC FEDSQL was introduced in the SAS^® 9.4 release. Federated Query Language, or FEDSQL, is a vendor-independent language that provides a common SQL syntax to communicate across multiple relational databases without having to worry about vendor-specific SQL syntax. PROC FEDSQL is a SAS implementation of the FEDSQL language. PROC FEDSQL enables us to write federated queries that can be used to perform joins on tables from different databases with a single query, without having to worry about loading the tables into SAS individually and combining them using DATA steps and PROC SQL statements. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the working of PROC FEDSQL to fetch data from multiple data sources such as Microsoft SQL Server database, MySQL database, and a SAS data set, and run federated queries on all the data sources. Other powerful features of PROC FEDSQL such as transactions and FEDSQL pass-through facility are discussed briefly.