ESM Statement

ESM <option> ;

An ESM statement can be used to find an appropriate exponential smoothing model specification based on the model selection criterion (McKenzie 1984).

The HPFDIAGNOSE procedure performs the intermittency test first. If the series is intermittent, an intermittent demand model is fitted to the data and the ESM statement is not applicable. If the series is not intermittent, an ESM is fitted to the data.

If a model statement is not specified, the HPFDIAGNOSE procedure diagnoses ARIMAX and exponential smoothing models if the series is not intermittent, but diagnoses an intermittent demand model if the series is intermittent.

METHOD=BEST | BESTN | BESTS

BEST

fits the best candidate smoothing model (SIMPLE, DOUBLE, LINEAR, DAMPTREND, SEASONAL, WINTERS, ADDWINTERS). This is the default.

BESTN

fits the best candidate nonseasonal smoothing model (SIMPLE, DOUBLE, LINEAR, DAMPTREND).

BESTS

fits the best candidate seasonal smoothing model (SEASONAL, WINTERS, ADDWINTERS).