The X12 Procedure |
FORECAST Statement |
The FORECAST statement uses the estimated model to forecast the time series. The output contains point forecasts and forecast statistics for the transformed and original series.
The following option can appear in the FORECAST statement:
specifies the number of periods ahead to forecast for regARIMA extension of the series. The default is the number of periods in a year (4 or 12), and the maximum is 60. Setting LEAD=0 specifies that the series not be extended by forecasts. The LEAD= value also controls the number of forecasts that are displayed in Table D10.A. However, if the series is not extended by forecasts (LEAD=0), then the default year of forecasts is displayed in Table D10.A. Note that forecast values in Table D10.A are calculated using the method shown on page 148 of Ladiray and Quenneville (2001) based on values that are displayed in Table D10. The regARIMA forecasts affect the D10.A forecasts only indirectly through the impact of the regARIMA forecasts on the seasonal factors that are shown in Table D10.
Tables that contain forecasts, standard errors, and confidence limits are displayed in association with the FORECAST statement. If the data is transformed, then two tables are displayed: one table for the original data, and one table for the transformed data.
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